In updating its late-May hurricane forecast for the Atlantic in 2006, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported Tuesday that while it has reduced the number of storms it expects for the season, it still expects a more active than normal season.

As the peak activity period of the Atlantic hurricane season sets in, scientists at NOAA warned that the year’s relatively quiet start is not an indication of what the remainder of the season has in store.

“This year’s three named storms may pale in comparison to the record nine storms that formed through early August 2005, but conditions will be favorable for above-normal activity for the rest of this season — so we are not off the hook by any means,” said Conrad C. Lautenbacher, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

For the entire 2006 season, which ends November 30, NOAA is now projecting a total of 12 to 15 named storms of which seven to nine will intensify to hurricanes, including three or four becoming major hurricanes — rated at Category 3 or higher. In late May (see NGI, May 29), NOAA predicted 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become major hurricanes. The new forecast remains above the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

NOAA downgraded its seasonal forecast a week after the Colorado State Hurricane Forecast team — led by respected hurricane forecasters William Gray and Philip Klotzbach — did the same thing (see NGI, Aug. 7). In late May (see NGI, June 5), Klotzbach and Gray had called for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5). Their revised forecast calls for a total of 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes.

According to Gerry Bell, Ph.D., NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, the major climate factors expected to influence this year’s activity are the ongoing multi-decadal signal, which produces wind and atmospheric pressure patterns favorable for hurricane formation, along with ongoing warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures. NOAA attributes these same factors to the current active Atlantic hurricane era that began in 1995.

Bell noted that conditions were ripe last year for early season storm development. “La Niña-like convection in the central equatorial Pacific during June and July of 2005 contributed to the development of numerous early-season storms,” he said. “Conditions this year reflect a more typical active season, with peak activity expected during August-October.”

Despite the update, NOAA’s seasonal outlook does not specify where and when tropical storms and hurricanes could strike. “Science has not evolved enough to accurately predict on seasonal timescales when and where these storms will likely make landfall,” said Bell. “Exactly when and where landfall occurs is strongly controlled by the weather patterns in place as the storms approach land. These weather patterns generally cannot be predicted more than several days in advance.”

NOAA National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield, said “As we approach the peak of the hurricane season, our message remains the same, be informed and be prepared. Preventing the loss of life and minimizing property damage from hurricanes are responsibilities shared by all. Remember, one hurricane hitting your neighborhood is enough to make it a bad season.”

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