New cogeneration plants are on the move in California, but theymay not be built fast enough to keep up with growing demand.

The California Energy Commission (CEC) gave the go-ahead lastweek for the state’s second natural gas-fired merchant power plant.In addition it has nine pending applications totaling 6,200 MW forproposed new gas-fired generation in various stages of review, andalmost another dozen on the drawing boards. But a report itreleased in July warns by the year 2001 the state’s overallgenerating capability could be unable to meet summer peaks. Thereport recommends various alternatives such as distributed power,load-shedding and renewed efficiency standards to supplement thenew plants that are not expected to be approved and built fastenough.

The CEC estimates that the California power demand is growing atabout 1,000 MW annually.

Construction on the just-approved 500 MW cogen plant to runalongside a steelmaking facility will begin in late September inthe East San Francisco Bay town of Pittsburg, CA. A second, largergas-fired plant is expected to get approvals early next year fordevelopment in Pittsburg.

“If you have a recurring weather pattern like we had (inCalifornia) last year (1998), there is a good chance that resourceswould not be adequate,” said Dan Nix, CEC assistant executivedirector for generation. “There are also other variables affectingthis, such as the status of hydro-electric generation. Our analysisassumed we had an average (hydro) year.

“We concluded that while things are tight it doesn’t appearproblematic this year or in 2000. But because of load growth by thetime you hit 2001 and 2002 reserves are extremely low even undernormal conditions. “There are a lot of ‘what-ifs,’ but weconcluded it should not be dismissed. And right now we’re puttingtogether a list of activities that would develop on the demand-sideof the market. It is unclear what (a proposed new federal EPAstandard) means in terms of how much more efficient airconditioners might be and how quickly that effect could be felt inthe marketplace.”

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