Southwestern Connecticut and southern Nevada will be the areas of concern for the electric industry this summer, the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) said Wednesday in its 2002 Summer Assessment. Across the rest of the nation, there is expected to be adequate and reliable power supply to meet demand this summer despite the current drought, NERC said.

“Capacity margins have increased substantially in several areas of North America during the past year,” said NERC CEO Michehl R. Gent. “and although much of North America is experiencing drought conditions, we do not expect this to materially impact reliability.”

NERC said despite recent announcements that planned generation will be delayed or cancelled, those plants previously planned to be in service this summer are still on schedule and are expected to be available to meet peak demand. NERC also said current information indicates the reactor head problem on the Davis-Besse nuclear plant in ECAR is not expected to lead to widespread outages of nuclear facilities this summer, but the long-term ramifications of Davis-Besse will not be known until inspections are completed during planned outages at other plants.

Peak demand is expected to be only 0.5% higher than last summer because of the slowdown of the economy. Peak demand in North America is projected to increase 2.7% compared to the actual 2001 “noncoincident summer peak,” NERC said. The historical average annual demand growth over the last 10 years has been 2.5%.

Local transmission limitations into southwestern Connecticut and tight capacity margins in southern Nevada make these areas particularly susceptible to reliability problems associated with any delays in the installation of new resources, lower than expected generating unit availability or extreme weather, NERC said. In southwestern Connecticut, some firm demand may have to be curtailed under certain conditions.

An Emergency Capability Supplement program will be implemented by June to acquire 80 MW of additional temporary peaking generation and demand reductions to reduce the likelihood that southern Connecticut will experience rotating blackouts during abnormal peak conditions this summer. In addition, New England Power Pool participants are contracting with customers in the region to receive payments to voluntarily reduce their demand. It expects the demand reduction from this program to be about 230 MW. “The temporary new generation, demand reductions, conservation and use of emergency existing generation are all necessary to avoid localized rotating blackouts in southwestern Connecticut this summer,” NERC said in its assessment.

The Arizona/New Mexico subregion expects only a 10.7% capacity margin at peak this summer driven by tight capacity conditions in southern Nevada. A large portion of this projected capacity margin in southern Nevada is attributable to electricity purchases yet to be made because of the credit situation of Nevada’s electric utilities (see Power Market Today, May 15 ). Adequate transmission capacity exists but if the power cannot be purchased, the area will be “especially susceptible to customer curtailments associated with higher than normal equipment failures or extreme weather,” NERC said.

The report notes that California, New York City and Long Island are expected to have adequate capacity margins throughout the summer. The balance between capacity and demand in California has improved since last summer due to decreases in the demand for electricity and the addition of about 5,000 MW of new generating resources in the area. The addition of about 450 MW of new resources in New York City and Long Island should enable these areas to reliably serve their firm demands and meet their required levels of internal generation.

To download the report, go to: https://www.nerc.com/~filez/rasreports.html. NERC is a not-for-profit company formed as a result of the Northeast blackout in 1965 to promote the reliability of the bulk electric systems that serve North America. It works with all segments of the electric industry as well as customers. NERC comprises 10 regional reliability councils that account for virtually all the electricity supplied in the United States, Canada and a portion of Baja California Norte, Mexico.

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