Canada’s increasing population, economic growth and increased use of electrical equipment will increase the demand for power nearly 40% in the next 20 years, according to a new report by the National Energy Board (NEB).

According to the NEB’s electricity production outlook, generating capacity will increase nearly the same amount using two scenarios devised by the board. In its “supply-push” (SP) scenario, the current energy picture calculates future demand using both supply and consumption market calculations. In a “techno-vert” (TV) scenario, NEB focused on long-range technological advances in production and conservation, and predicted the regulatory picture combined with Canada’s “green” consciousness.

In its SP outlook, the NEB suggests that generators will continue to rely “mainly on conventional technologies to meet rising domestic load requirements, while alternative technologies and renewable fuels generally remain uneconomic.”

The SP scenario also foresees new coal-fired facilities built in Ontario and the western provinces, the use of “Orimulsion” in the Maritimes, along with limited alternative technologies and renewable fuel penetration.

By 2025, SP also shows total natural-gas fired generation increasing to about 16% from the current 6%.

Using the TV scenario, the NEB assumed that “technological developments and increased action on the environment” would “accelerate demand for cleaner energy.” The shift to cleaner generation is expected to grow, and overall, renewable fuels would account for nearly 10% of total Canadian generation by 2025, compared with 4% in SP.

Both scenarios assume that distributed generation will increase, but that technological innovations would enable it to happen more rapidly in the TV scenario.

Currently, about 60% of Canadian power generation is hydro-based. Both the SP and TV scenarios are forecasting large-scale hydro development in Labrador, Quebec, British Columbia and Manitoba. Total hydro-based capacity, excluding small hydro, is projected to reach 79 GW by 2025 under both scenarios, an increase of almost 20% from current levels.

Nuclear generation would not grow under the SP scenario because of the industry’s preference for fossil fuels. In the TV scenario, however, new advanced reactors may be constructed at existing facilities in Ontario and New Brunswick.

Assuming natural gas prices remain in the projected range, both SP and TV scenarios anticipate “significant” additions through 2025: 17.6 GW in SP and 14.6 GW in TV.

Also, the NEB expects more gas-fired cogeneration facilities to be developed with the country’s growing oil sands and in situ bitumen projects. Alberta would see the largest growth of gas demand facilities, followed by Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia. Provinces would also experience an increasing thirst for gas demand for power generation.

NEB’s full energy report is available for download on the web site at www.neb.gc.ca.

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