Fueled by stubbornly mild weather and an improved supply outlook, North American natural gas prices fell more than $1 from Monday to Wednesday and closed in on the $4.00/MMBtu mark for the first time since early summer.

natural gas exports

Even as gas prices in Europe continue at record levels, the North American supply/demand and pricing picture has shifted decidedly in recent weeks. Lower 48 production continues to be on an upswing and averaged 94.3 Bcf/d in November, up 1.5 Bcf/d versus October. 

Analysts at BofA Global Commodity Research now expect Henry Hub gas prices to average $3.45/MMBtu in 2022, or about 75 cents below current forward prices for the upcoming winter months.

The lower prices are fueling higher power burns in Mexico, according to Wood Mackenzie analyst Ricardo Falcón....