Natural gas prices and renewable energy capital costs will determine the future electric generation mix in Asia, the continent that’s expected to account for half of the world’s energy consumption by 2050, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

EIA released its projections for the Asian energy market Wednesday as part of its updated International Energy Outlook (IEO). The 2020 IEO lays out a range of scenarios that could dramatically reshape the mix of energy resources in Asia, with natural gas prices expected to factor heavily into the equation as lower-carbon resources compete to displace coal.

“In China, the country’s energy policies limit growth in coal-fired generation, which can be further affected by changes in renewables cost assumptions and...