Bitterly cold temperatures blanketed the Lower 48, and the deep freeze threatened to curb output throughout most of the country’s production basins. Long-held storage surpluses have quickly eroded and export demand continues to fire on all cylinders.

It was, by all considerations, the perfect storm to send natural gas futures rocketing sharply higher. And yet, in anti-climatic fashion, natural gas futures failed to sustain a $3 handle during the Feb. 4-12 period, slipping a couple of cents on the week to settle Friday at $2.912/MMBtu. The rest of the curve also barely budged, with modest losses at the front of the curve and meager gains further out.

U.S. markets moved similarly, with very small changes across the majority of forward curves.

Instead, all the wild swings...