Close-to-flat price movement in either direction was the norm in the cash market Wednesday as prior-day futures support from a gain of 6.1 cents by the May contract Tuesday was pitted against generally light heating load and the absence of any substantive cooling load yet.

Flat to about 40 cents higher numbers were dominant, led by Rockies gains. However, excluding the top increase by Northwest-South of Green River (which had seen a low-end quote of about 35 cents Monday), the overall advance was capped at a little less than 20 cents and a large majority of movement was in single digits.

Prices changes were similarly limited among losses ranging from 2-3 cents to about 15 cents as only Transco’s two Zone 6 pools fell more than a dime.

After extreme weakness to begin the week, with some quotes below a dollar Monday, the Rockies market is recovering through a combination of sub-freezing lows forecast in some sections (with a snowstorm due Thursday, according to The Weather Channel) and the continuing relaxation of transportation constraints. Rockies suppliers can also look forward to having Questar’s Clay Basin storage facility reopen for injections Friday after a two-week shutdown for testing.

Thursday’s cash market will have essentially neutral guidance after May futures barely managed to eke out a gain of 0.4 cent in late trading Wednesday (see related story).

Other than the Rockies, freezing lows keep getting fewer and farther between, with only upper New England, upstate New York and parts of Canada also still expected to get that cold Thursday. Even such normal cold weather mainstays as Fargo, ND, near the Canadian border aren’t expected to get below a relatively mild 40 degrees.

Highs in the upper 70s and occasionally low 80s in Texas, Louisiana and Florida may be contributing a modicum of early-spring cooling load, but it’s unlikely that many gas-fired peaking generation units will be dispatched to meet it. Other than that, most of the rest of the South is topping out at only about 70 or less. Even the usual hottest part of the U.S., the desert Southwest, is quite mild with Phoenix expected to not quite reach 70 Thursday.

Based largely on scant futures movement and predominant forecasts of moderate weather continuing, a Texas-based marketer said he expects more of the same in the cash market Thursday: mixed price movement and not far from flat in most cases. It’s not an exciting marketer, he said, as trading counterparties “keep telling me” they are finding almost no transport spreads to take advantage of. Also, there aren’t many “motivated” buyers right now, even those who might normally be tempted by storage injection plays, he added.

The National Weather Service predicts below-normal temperatures during the April 20-24 workweek everywhere east of a line extending from central North Dakota basically southward to West Texas. The agency looks for above-normal readings everywhere west of a line going from the eastern edge of Montana to the southeast to eastern Colorado before it curves back to the southwest through central New Mexico.

By late April below-normal temperatures in the eastern half of the U.S. mean little more than chilly to cool in most cases, so heating load will remain quite limited and be dying out quickly.

SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Cameron Horwitz said he expects a 20 Bcf storage injection to be reported for the week ending April 10. That volume would match the five-year average build.

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