For the week ended Sept. 6 the national physical gas average price was $3.65, up 11 cents. Most market points — with the exception of a handful of spots in the Northeast, Midwest, and Midcontinent — added a dime or more.

Greatest gains were seen by California points, which in the aggregate added 17 cents to $3.92. The Northeast tallied the smallest “gain,” coming in flat at $3.40.

Hot weather and low hydro supplies continued to draw gas west and El Paso S Mainline was the individual market point scoring the biggest gain, advancing 21 cents to $4.01. Transco-Leidy Line, in the infrastructure-challenged Marcellus was the location showing the greatest loss, 66 cents, to $1.71.

Regionally, the Midwest added 6 cents to $3.89, and the Midcontinent was higher by 8 cents to $3.60. South Texas and South Louisiana both scored double-digit gains of 11 cents and 12 cents to $3.61 and $3.62, respectively. The Rocky Mountains and East Texas each were higher by 13 cents to $3.55 and $3.63, respectively.

For the four-day trading week October futures lost 5.1 cents to $3.530.

In Friday’s trading physical natural gas prices for weekend and Monday delivery plunged an average of 16 cents as buyers were reluctant to commit to three-day packages. Nearly all points experienced losses ranging from 10-20 cents with Marcellus points dropping about a half dollar. At the close of futures trading, October had retreated 4.5 cents to $3.530 and November was off 4.9 cents to $3.617.

Futures traders are stalking a good place to buy. “We had been looking for a move down, and we got it, but the question is where do we go from here,” said a Washington, DC-based broker-analyst with Powerhouse LLC. “We keep a seasonal index and it points to a low in September. Historically, you look to be a buyer on the September low. Does it happen every year? No. Nothing is perfect. While we do believe prices could pull back, Elliott Wave analysis shows this move down will face a lot of headwinds and it will be hard to make a new low for the move. This leg down will likely provide [buying] opportunities.”

Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates sees the influence of weather waning as the shoulder season approaches.

“Although [Thursday’s] larger-than-expected 58 Bcf injection offered only a 3-4 Bcf miss from average industry ideas, it proved sufficient to trigger a re-entry of speculative capital into the short side. And, although the one- to two-week temperature views that are beginning to stretch through the third week of September remain skewed bullish, deviations from normal through much of the Midwest don’t appear sufficient to spike CDDs [cooling degree days]. With the short-term views now extending to about the beginning of the shoulder period, the temperature factor is slowly being pushed to the sidelines as a significant driver of price.”

Basis has been strengthening in the Rocky Mountains and continued warm temperatures in California get most of the credit. “We are seeing about a 10-cent differential between CIG and the Henry Hub,” said a Rockies producer.

“It’s been hot out in California and Arizona, and reports say Ruby Pipeline’s throughput has been rising and Kern River has been full all year with low linepack. It ‘s due to a combination of weather and low hydro. Nobody here though is jumping up and down with CIG at $3.45.”

The National Weather Service in Sacramento, CA, called for “very warm temperatures expected over the weekend into early next week as a ridge builds in over the area.”

Forecaster AccuWeather.com predicted that the high in Sacramento Friday of 91 would reach 96 on Sunday and 98 on Monday. The normal high in Sacramento is 89.

San Francisco’s forecast high of 80 Friday was expected to hold through the weekend and Monday, and the normal early September high in the Bay Area is 74. Los Angeles’ Friday high of 94 was expected to drop to 83 by Sunday and Monday. The seasonal high in Los Angeles is 85.

The California Independent System Operator forecast that Friday’s peak load would reach a stout 42,806 MW before dropping to 40,199 MW on Saturday.

IntercontinentalExchange reported hefty increases in Monday power prices at California and related market points.

Peak power at COB surged $23.20 to $72.30/MWh, and deliveries to Mid-C jumped $26.61 to $69.47/MWh. Peak Monday power at NP-15 added $6.71 to $58.21/MWh, and deliveries to SP-15 fell $1.91 to $61.89/MWh.

For weekend and Monday delivery gas prices throughout the Rockies slumped. CIG Mainline was seen at $3.45, down 15 cents but a narrow 9 cents less than the Henry Hub at $3.54. Cheyenne came in at $3.48, down 16 cents, and packages on Northwest Pipeline Wyoming dropped 15 cents to $3.39. At Opal gas was quoted at $3.46, down 18 cents, and Kern River receipts were seen at $3.46, down 17 cents.

Eastern points fell as well. Gas on Dominion fell 14 cents to $3.25, and deliveries to Tetco M-3 slipped 15 cents to $3.48. Gas on Transco Zone 6 into New York City fell 13 cents to $3.60.

Hardest hit were the Marcellus points. Transco-Leidy Line changed hands for weekend and Monday delivery at $1.35, down 59 cents, and Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus shed 48 cents to $1.37.

Weather forecasts cooled overnight. WSI Corp. in its Friday morning six- to 10-day outlook predicted above and much above normal temperatures will be confined west of the Mississippi River from Wisconsin and Louisiana west to northern California and the Pacific Northwest. “[Friday’s] forecast has trended cooler over the Midwest early and Northeast late in the period under a digging cold trough. Confidence in this morning’s forecast is considered average as a result of reasonable model agreement with some technical differences over [the] East late.

“Temperatures could run a few [degrees] warmer over the Southern Plains, whereas a few [degrees] cooler Northeast mid-to-late period.”

Addison Armstrong of Tradition Energy in opening comments Friday to clients said, “Although gas prices had retreated nearly 15 cents from [Thursday’s] six-week high by day’s end, forecasts for hot weather and expectations of elevated cooling demands across the middle part of the country next week are likely to provide support for the market in the coming days. Weather forecasts are little-changed from [Thursday], with above-normal temperatures expected from Texas through the Midwest in the coming weeks.”

In the Atlantic the National Hurricane Center in its 2 p.m. EDT Friday report said it was following four systems: Tropical Depression 8 which has moved onshore Mexico, the remnants of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, a low pressure system 500 miles south of Bermuda; and an area of low pressure about 600 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. The Gabrielle remnant storm had the best chance, 40%, of becoming a tropical cyclone in the succeeding five days.

In its Friday Employment Report, the Labor Department said August non-farm payrolls increased by 169,000, which was somewhat less than the 175,000 expected. The unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 7.3%.

In Thursday’s trading natural gas for delivery Friday rose a penny overall on average. Most traders elected to get their deals done ahead of the release of inventory data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and weakness at eastern and northeast points was countered by strength in California and firm quotes in the Gulf Coast and Midcontinent. The EIA reported an inventory gain of 58 Bcf, somewhat bigger than what traders were expecting and prices fell. At the close October natural gas was down 10.8 cents to $3.575 and November had fallen 10.1 cents to $3.666.

Analysts generally erred on the low side. ICAP Energy estimated the report would show a build of 53 Bcf, and First Enercast predicted an increase of 59 Bcf. Bentek Energy’s flow model anticipated a 54 Bcf injection. Last year 33 Bcf was injected, and the five-year average stands at 60 Bcf.

Inventories now stand at 3,188 Bcf and are 210 Bcf less than last year’s record-setting build and 43 Bcf above the 5-year average. In the East Region 43 Bcf was injected and in the West Region 3 Bcf was added. Inventories in the Producing Region increased by 12 Bcf.