Much of the cash market emulated the March futures contract Thursday — barely budging from where it stood the day before. Outside of some sizeable drops at Northeast citygates, not many points ventured any farther than about a nickel up or down from flat. Weather turning milder again in several areas after going frigid at midweek was cited for the failure of most prices to extend Wednesday’s gains.

The Northeast didn’t fit the overall market mold, with declines ranging to as much as about a quarter at the Algonquin citygate as a storm that had dumped significant amounts of snow on New England and other parts of the region moved out to sea and toward the Canadian Maritimes. However, a couple of ringers in the region were Texas Eastern M-3, down about a nickel, and Transco Zone 6’s non-New York City pool, which actually eked out a small increase.

Florida citygates exceeded the norm in the other direction, rising a little more than 20 cents after Florida Gas Transmission initiated a mild OFO-like action (see Transportation Notes) due to near-freezing temperatures in northern sections of the state. Production-area numbers on FGT were also relatively strong, with Zones 2 and 3 recording nickel rises and Zone 1 in South Texas up more than a dime.

Although light snow showers were forecast for the Great Lakes area Friday, the Midcontinent saw most of the non-Northeast dips greater than about a nickel as higher temperatures were expected in most of its primary Midwest market area.

Sources were unanimous in predicting softness in Friday’s market due to receding heating load in almost every market area. One also cited Nymex’s failure to move despite what one analyst called a “slightly bullish” storage number.

The Energy Information Administration reported a 176 Bcf withdrawal from storage for the week ending Feb. 4. The volume was well within the range of prior expectations but a bit higher than consensus estimates in the 160s. Nymex traders apparently just shrugged their shoulders and turned to other interests, as the March natural gas contract stayed close to flat all day and closed the session down just half a cent despite big spikes in the nearby petroleum products pits.

It looks like winter is close to finished, said a Houston-based marketer, adding, “I hear a lot of people expressing that sentiment.” With crude oil futures rising more than a dollar and a half to close moderately above $47/bbl, he said he thinks oil going back “to [the area] where it will be trading for a long time.” He was kind of puzzled that gas futures didn’t get a big boost from the oil spike, as has happened several times in the recent past.

But a Calgary-based producer suggested that the gas screen was moving up recently while oil was moving down, so there was no special reason why gas should follow when oil is just recovering lost price ground. It was around 45 degrees F. Thursday afternoon in Calgary, he said, relatively balmy for Western Canada in February and emblematic of weak demand “almost everywhere.” He noted that Chicago traded 3-4 cents back of Henry Hub, saying the citygate had changed from the usual premium to the Hub that prevailed through the 1990s because of substantial additions of pipe capacity to the Chicago market area in recent years. He cited Alliance and the Northern Border expansion as two prime examples.

“There’s nothing going on here,” commented a Northeast marketer who said trading has been quiet for his company for quite a while. The market is humming along without much to excite it, he said. Weekend prices should be “much softer,” he went on. The Northeast is starting to warm up again, “and I don’t see any serious cold again until the end of next week,” if then.

A Southwest trader confessed to “trying to keep from going to sleep. This market is too slow.” Observing that “spring-like weather” pervades Texas, she looks for softer prices to dominate in cash for the foreseeable future.

©Copyright 2005Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news reportmay not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in anyform, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.