The spate of colder weather in the Midwest and Northeast that had generated upticks at nearly all points in the previous two days began to lose its price-boosting ability Thursday. Only the Northeast, where high temperatures are predicted to stay at the freezing level or below Friday and into the weekend, continued to see substantially higher prices Thursday. Except for small gains at a couple of scattered non-Northeast points, the rest of the market was flat to just a tad softer.

Northeast quotes recorded double-digit increases that ran as high as about 40 cents or more at New England delivery points (Tennessee Zone 6, the Algonquin citygate and Dracut). Losses elsewhere were minuscule in nearly all cases, with none getting as high as a dime.

A bearish storage report and a falling screen, along with milder weather in several areas and trading for a long holiday weekend, are expected to unite all points in declines Friday. The Energy Information Administration estimated that 98 Bcf was taken out of storage during the week ending Feb. 11 — a volume that fell short of nearly all prior expectations. Futures quickly dropped more than a dime but required several attempts before breaking below the psychologically important $6 level to wind up the day down nearly 19 cents.

The Northeast won’t be totally abandoned as the last remaining U.S. outpost of cold weather this weekend; it will just have the worst of it. New cold fronts will be moving into the Upper Midwest Friday and into the eastern sections of the South around Sunday, but they’re not expected to be strong enough to rally prices. Meanwhile, snow in the West likely will remain confined to the mountainous areas.

The Northeast will stay cold enough through the weekend to keep quite a few furnaces turned on, said a marketer in the region. Then it is due for a warmup early next week, he added. But despite the prospect of heating load staying fairly strong for a few more days, the marketer expected the Northeast to rejoin the overall market with lower prices Friday. Presidents Day Monday will enhance the usual weekend drop in industrial demand, the storage report was undeniably bearish, and Thursday’s weaker screen pointed the way for cash to follow Friday, he observed.

Thursday’s late quotes tended to go “a little lower” after the storage report came out, but the bulk of cash gas had already been traded by then, he said.

Because of sub-freezing Midwestern temperatures predicted Friday, the Chicago citygate traded around $6.10 Thursday, or about a nickel premium to Henry Hub after the two points had been at essential parity Wednesday, a Calgary-based producer noted. Storage came out “a little on the low end” of expectations, he said in understatement. For a change the screen reacted to such bearish news as one might expect, but it took quite a while to get there, he added.

Canadian traders, at least the ones in Alberta, will be taking Monday off along with the Americans because of the provincial Family Day holiday, the producer said.

Looking ahead to the March bidweek, he said physical basis is looking flat at Chicago. He expects indexed deals there to be at a small discount, saying he anticipates trading at the NGI index minus about 1.5 cents.

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