Much like the day before, a few flat to higher points were able to avoid the softness that continued to dominate the cash market Tuesday. An expiration-day drop of 3 cents by April futures was just another bearish factor in which gas is finding substantive heating demand scarce.

Most of the market recorded declines ranging from 2-3 cents to 15 cents or so. The points that were flat to up as much as about 20 cents tended to be concentrated in the Rockies/Pacific Northwest.

At least the cash market can count on modest screen backing for a change Wednesday after the May futures contract made its prompt-month debut with a gain of 5.7 cents (see related story).

Chilly weather in the Pacific Northwest and Rockies combined with forecasts of sub-freezing lows Wednesday in Alberta gave moderate support to some locations in the region. Northwest Pipeline asked customers “to buy sufficient supply to meet demand for the cooler temperatures” being predicted in its Pacific Northwest service area. Canadian deliveries into Northwest at Sumas saw one of the day’s largest upticks of about a dime.

However, moderate conditions reigned in nearly all of the rest of the market. Northeast temperatures are in a warming trend after the latest winter-like storm began moving out to sea, while some parts of the Midwest such as Chicago can expect relatively balmy highs in the low 70s Wednesday. Springtime peaks approaching 80 will remain the norm across the southern third of the U.S.

The SoCal citygate rose several cents, likely on the basis that it appeared SoCalGas would be ending a lengthy high-linepack OFO Wednesday. However, in the afternoon after cash trading had ended the utility extended the OFO again (see Transportation Notes).

Rockies Express reported having less than 100 Dth/d of available capacity for Tuesday’s gas day in each of three segments: Echo to Arlington, Arlington to WY CO [Wyoming-Colorado] State Line and WY CO State Line to Cheyenne Hub. Each segment has 1,890,000 Dth/d of design capacity.

Southern Natural Gas said forecasts in its service area indicated “a warming trend each day as we move closer to the weekend.” Based on current supplies and anticipated demand, it projected storage requirements to exceed maximum injection capability by 100,000 Dth/d as early as Wednesday.

A Midcontinent producer saw no turnaround from overall weakening prices in sight. OGT was still stronger than most of its Midcontinent neighbors, but quotes into the intrastate were falling in late deals, he said. In contrast, he reported NGPL-TexOk numbers rising most of the way.

A marketer in the Upper Midwest said she was encouraged by developing weather forecasts, saying her area might be seeing highs in the 80s by the end of the week. The resultant weakening of gas prices was allowing her company to save money for its clients on gas purchases, but actually regional prices were lower in early 2009 than now, she said.

The marketer reported paying citygate basis of plus 21 cents for Consumers Energy and plus 25 cents for MichCon. The company probably will be active in the April daily market because it went light on first-of-month baseload. “Going heavy for March” proved to be a mistake, she said, as prices tended to soften fairly steadily during the month.

Here’s how several analysts project the storage injection expected to be reported Thursday for the week ending March 26: Cameron Horwitz of SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, 13 Bcf; Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates, 19 Bcf; and Ron Denhardt of Strategic Energy & Economic Research and Kyle Cooper of IAF Advisors, 22 Bcf each.

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