Sizeable declines at New England points and small ones on a couple of Rockies pipes were the major exceptions to continued moderate bullishness in the rest of the cash market Thursday. Most points ranged from flat to about a quarter higher. Much like the day before, a majority of gains were in the teens.

Although one source thought it was “too close to call” on whether prices would be up or down Friday, a few others made the case for softness, citing the usual weekend demand slump and forecasts that as the weekend proceeds the eastern U.S. will continue to see further moderation from the frigid conditions that have dominated its weather for nearly three weeks.

Although the weekend weather forecast is fairly bearish, in its outlook for the Feb. 5-9 period, the National Weather Service predicts below normal temperatures for almost the entire U.S. Exceptions where normal readings are expected are much of the states of Washington and Oregon, an expanse from the northern Rockies through the Upper Midwest, and the lower half of Florida.

The Energy Information Administration, as expected, came out with an ostensibly bullish storage report of 247 Bcf in withdrawals last week, and capped it off with a revision of the previous week’s report to reflect an extra 9 Bcf in withdrawals for the week ending Jan. 17 (see related story). Although the current report exceeded most expectations and further increased the year-on-year deficit, Nymex traders probably stifled yawns as they sent futures lower by nearly a nickel in the March contract’s debut as prompt month.

Despite the gas screen’s drop, crude oil and heating oil futures continued to advance, with crude ending the day just 15 cents shy of $34/bbl.

“The EIA put out quite a healthy storage report, but the market didn’t react much even though it was at the high end of expectations,” a Midcontinent source said. “Prices could fall with the warming temperatures early next week. Getting the market down to four-dollar gas would be great news for my customers and me.”

A trader whose sole quote Thursday was a Florida Gas Transmission Zone 1 package at $5.75 said she thought numbers had fallen after the storage report, “but when you’ve only got a few [MMcf/d] to worry about, you go ahead and buy early and don’t hassle about it.” She and others commented that the market seemed to grow considerably quieter as January activity came to a close.

A western marketer who was among those expecting lower prices Friday said he based his outlook on a “case of California weekend-itis, as I call it.” He found it interesting that the West encompassed some of the weakest points in the Rockies and some of the strongest in California Thursday. Mostly moderate weather in the region helped explain the Rockies, he said. But the only reason he could give for California gains of a little more than 20 cents was that although the utility didn’t issue an OFO, PG&E was projecting below-minimum linepack levels for Thursday and Friday. “PG&E is always quick with an OFO when its linepack gets high, but resists them in low-linepack cases,” he commented.

A marketer quoting next-day intra-Alberta gas around C$7.00 said the weather around Calgary was nice enough to have him thinking about digging his golf clubs out of the closet, which he admitted was pretty unusual for the end of January.

A trader in the Southwest basins said February prices were a bit stronger Thursday than his deals earlier in the week. El Paso-Permian (Keystone pool) traded up to $5.20 on what he discerned as a “little short squeeze.” He saw Waha at almost the same price ($5.19) and said it was strange that Waha was not stronger than Permian quotes.

A couple of sources contributed observations about how difficult it was getting anyone to accept fixed-price deals during bidweek. “Traders are trying to hedge their bets,” said one. “I tried and tried to get this other trader to do fixed prices with me. He was just being lazy. If he did sell any fixed-price gas, he would have to buy contracts and basis to counter it. I think it is a matter of convenience for many traders.”

A marketer reported that most of the San Juan-Blanco trades he witnessed on an online platform “were for index minus 8 [cents], and that baffled me” on why anyone would sell at such a large discount. Almost all February indexed deals were at a discount, he added.

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