U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters could see cargo cancellations return this summer if the current supply glut cannot be alleviated by then, analysts said Wednesday.

Henry Hub March 3

According to IHS Markit, 2020 saw an estimated global surplus of around 24 million metric tons of LNG, or 6% of the available market, as demand weakened amid the coronavirus pandemic. This year, supplies are expected to grow by 3%, said research and analysis director James Taverner. He spoke with other experts about the outlook on Wednesday at CERAWeek by IHS Markit. 

“LNG demand would have to grow by something like 9%-plus to absorb all the surplus from last year, as well as the supply growth in 2021,” Taverner said. That could happen if the summer is particularly hot or there are supply outages, he...