The Minerals Management Service (MMS) last week presented low- and high-case projections on natural gas production from the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), showing a wide range between the two because of the uncertainty over decline rates. GOM gas production either will fall slightly through 2006 or rise sharply and then level off after 2004. The forecast concludes that gas production in 2006 will be between 10.97 Bcf/d and 16.39 Bcf/d from the Outer Continental Shelf. Oil production, meanwhile, will rise to between 2.00-2.47 million bbl/d.

In last year’s forecast, MMS predicted that through 2005, gas production would be 11.10 Bcf/d to 16.54 Bcf/d and oil production would be 1.526 MM bbl/d to 1.967 MM bbl/d (see NGI, May 28, 2001). According to the new forecast, as much as 77% of daily oil production in the Gulf and 26% of daily gas production could come from the deepwater Gulf of Mexico by 2006.

As in last year’s report, MMS said the greatest potential for development also was in deepwater of 1,000 feet or more. The “Daily Oil and Gas Production Rate Projections From 2002 Through 2006” represents high-case and low-case estimates, according to Gulf of Mexico Region office.

MMS Director Johnnie Burton called the forecast “a healthy, sizeable increase” for oil, but he did not comment on why MMS predicts gas production to fall. If the high case estimates are reached in 2006, he said the United States would “see a 160% increase in oil production from the Gulf in the period 1995-2006.” Oil production has been rising steadily in the Gulf from 945,000 bbl/d in 1995.

Burton noted that “should the high case projection be met in 2006, oil production would be at almost 2.5 million bbl/d versus the 945,000 barrels in 1995.” Gulf deepwater oil production surpassed shallow-water oil production in March 2000, according to MMS.

The report (OCS Report MMS 2002-031) is available for no charge from the Public Information Office of the MMS Gulf of Mexico Region, as well as at the web site at www.gomr.mms.gov. Copies can be ordered by calling (800) 200-GULF.

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