Based on prior-day screen strength and continuing limits on available supply from the Gulf Coast, most points in the Gulf Coast, Midcontinent/Midwest and Appalachian markets were in rebound mode Friday. But overall price movement was mixed, with several points in the above areas along with the Northeast and much of the West flat to down as much as a little over a half dollar.

Weekend weather patterns were to remain generally as they had been: a hot South and a mild North, although temperatures would be falling a bit in parts of the Southeast while moving higher in the Upper Plains. The moderate northern conditions and the extra decline in industrial load that is typical of a holiday weekend were cited as reasons for the patches of softness.

Minerals Management Service (MMS) said Hurricane Katrina-related offshore shut-ins continued to dwindle. Based on reports reaching it from 68 companies by 11:30 a.m. CDT, MMS counted 7,248.2 MMcf/d still shut in Friday, down about 650 MMcf/d from the day before. Cumulative gas shut-ins since Aug. 26 reached 49.044 Bcf, equivalent to 1.344% of the Gulf of Mexico’s (GOM) annual output of about 3.65 Tcf, MMS said. It also recorded 1,327,953 bbl/d of oil shut-ins, along with cumulative deferred production of 8,761,848 bbl since Aug. 26. That equaled 1.6% of the Gulf’s approximately 547.5 million bbl in annual oil production.

A Texas trader who sells gas on behalf of several independent producers said they were all based in North Louisiana, West Texas or the Midcontinent with no offshore operations, so none were having any supply problems. They’ve got “Gucci gas” in circumstances like the ones imposed by Katrina, she commented. The trader was kind of surprised at finding “plenty of market for the weekend.” She had expected a little difficulty in placing gas since it was a holiday weekend and northern cooling load was rather scarce.

The trader noted that Southern Natural Gas has been one of the strongest-priced Gulf pipes recently, saying she guessed that was because it serves the hot South and has so much production shut in off southeast Louisiana.

Indeed, Southern almost had Friday’s top average at $12.97. However, Florida Gas Transmission’s (FGT) Zone 3, which was especially hard-hit by hurricane-prompted shut-ins, again claimed the top price place with an average over $15.50.

When the price dust had cleared Friday, NGPL-South Texas and Transco Station 30 were the only points trading flat to a few cents below first-of-month indexes. The premiums to index elsewhere were widely varied, ranging from 2-3 cents to as much as $4.65 or so at FGT Zone 3.

A Calgary-based producer called Friday’s market “very choppy. Prices were all over the place. Western Canada and Pacific Northwest numbers were flat to down a little, he said. Station 2-to-Sumas spreads tightened on Westcoast’s T-South Line, the producer said, but he was still able to cover variable transport costs. Loads were staying fairly stable despite softness at most western points, he added.

Tropical Storm Maria (formerly Tropical Depression 14) became the earliest 13th named storm to form in any hurricane season since 1851, The Weather Channel said. Maria was expected to strengthen well to the east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands but not reach hurricane status. Its projected track would keep it east of Bermuda and not expected to affect the U.S.

Citigroup analyst Kyle Cooper’s initial estimation for the upcoming storage report calls for a build in the 30s to low 40s Bcf range.

©Copyright 2005Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news reportmay not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in anyform, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.