Dwindling heating demand, energy futures weakness the day before and the loss of industrial load that typifies a weekend market all came into play as prices fell across the board Friday. Declines were remarkably consistent through virtually all geographic areas in ranging from a little more than a dime to about 30 cents.

Chances of a widespread rally Monday are considered good. Demand from industrial end-users will be returning, nearly all of the Lower 48 states in the U.S. are predicted to experience below normal temperatures throughout this week, and next-trading-day support from stronger energy futures will be in effect. The natural gas screen was up only a minuscule 0.4 cent Friday, but all of Nymex’s petroleum-based offerings saw major gains. Crude oil for April delivery rose 89 cents to $54.43/bbl after the International Energy Agency said oil consumption in the United States and China will increase even faster than expected this year due to robust economic growth, according to a report by Reuters news service.

However, as one source pointed out, in the middle of March “below normal” temperatures are not all that cold.

While frigid and occasionally snowy weather would remain a fixture through the weekend in the Midwest and Northeast and would be returning Monday to eastern sections of the South, it had nearly faded from existence in the West. According to The Weather Channel (TWC), date-specific records for high temperatures would be “tied or broken from Portland and Boise to Las Vegas” Saturday. However, upper-level disturbances migrating south from Canada through Montana and Wyoming will bring light snow and rain along with much cooler temperatures as far south as Colorado and northeast New Mexico Sunday, it added.

Prices dropped Friday despite evidence of there still being a considerable amount of heating load. TWC said winter storm warnings were posted Friday in nearly half of the Lower 48 states, primarily in the Northeast, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and eastern South: Connecticut, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

Northeast weather would be turning a little bit milder for the weekend, said a producer who trades at regional citygates, but temperatures will remain below seasonal norms until late this week. Daily highs are expected to rise into the 40s around then, he said. The producer reported doing several Monday-only sales “because that will be the coldest day” of the Saturday-through-Monday period. The buyers needed the one-day deals to balance their anticipated daily takes, he added.

The fuel buyer for a Texas electric utility said she was purchasing very little gas lately because generation loads have been so light in the Lone Star state. Prices got lower Friday, she conceded, “but they’re still not low enough to suit us.” She was delighted to have the weekend arriving, saying it looked like a good time to get outdoors and play in the beautiful spring-like weather.

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