Prices for Monday gas rose a nickel on average and market strength was most apparent at Midwest points as temperatures were forecast to plunge over the long weekend. Midwest strength was largely countered by weakness in the Gulf Coast and Rockies.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a withdrawal of 95 Bcf, a figure unusually high for this time of year, and futures slid as traders squared books ahead of the extended weekend. At the close May futures had fallen 4.4 cents to $4.024 and June was off 4.2 cents to $4.066. May crude oil gained 65 cents to $97.23/bbl.

Temperatures were expected to work lower over the long weekend across the Midwest. AccuWeather.com predicted Chicago’s Thursday high of 49 would slide to 41 by Monday, 10 degrees below normal. In Milwaukee the high Thursday of 44 was anticipated to fall to 38 Monday, 8 degrees of its normal seasonal pace. In Detroit the high Thursday of 51 was expected to drop to 44 by Monday, 7 degrees below normal.

Quotes for Monday delivery to Chicago Citygate added 13 cents to $4.34, and on Michcon Monday deliveries came in at $4.32, 9 cents higher. Consumers was quoted 18 cents higher at $4.40, and on Alliance Monday packages were seen at $4.36, up 17 cents. At Dawn Monday gas came in at $4.42, up 4 cents.

Market observers are not optimistic prices can continue to advance. A Rocky Mountain producer said he wouldn’t be surprised if prices took a breather since “prices are up 30 cents in the last month. I don’t think they are going to collapse, and we’re going to add another 150 Bcf to the deficit with next week’s storage report.”

He did offer the caveat that the market might be “in big trouble due to gas-to-coal switching. Gas prices have doubled since this time last year and coal prices are lower. We’ve also got 4 Bcf/d of new capacity from the Marcellus and some gas plants have lower production because of capacity constraints, but in the Eagle Ford they are adding plants and you can bet they are leaving the ethane in.”

Rockies prices for Monday delivery floundered. At Opal gas for Monday fell 5 cents to $3.89 and deliveries to CIG skidded 3 cents to $3.86. At the Cheyenne Hub Monday packages were up a penny at $3.92, and on Northwest Pipeline Wyoming gas was seen 9 cents lower at $3.82. Deliveries to Questar dropped 7 cents to $3.82.

Futures traders were pleased that the spot May contract held $4 on hefty volume. “It was close [a settle below $4], but no cigar,” said a New York floor trader. “That was positive that we settled over $4, and we had 180,000 contracts in the May.”

Weather forecasts turned significantly warmer overnight. WSI Corp. in its 11- to 15-day outlook on Thursday showed above-normal temperatures within a broad east-west fairway generally defined by Maine, Michigan and Montana on the north and Utah and Alabama on the south. “Temperatures are significantly warmer across much of the nation as a whole, with slightly colder temperatures over the desert Southwest when compared to [Wednesday’s] forecast.”

It added that risks to the forecast include “temperatures [running] even warmer than forecast across portions of the interior and eastern U.S. early in the period. There is also a warm risk over much of West, including California, as a period of Santa Anna winds are anticipated to develop.”

With the last week of the traditional storage withdrawal season at hand, analysts had a chance to see just how much of a storage deficit to last year and how little surplus to the five-year average remained with the morning release of inventory data by the EIA. Estimates were generally in the mid-90 Bcf area, but early spring shoulder season weather can always throw a wrench into the equation.

Energy Metro Desk in its weekly poll of pundits saw a somewhat thin 89 Bcf withdrawal, and John Sodergreen, editor, contended that there is a “bonafide trend going at the moment; these last few weeks have certainly been acting like a shoulder period, without all the usual indicators.” He said several of his contributors “suggest to us that despite the chaos of the past few weeks of EIA report surprises, this week, all should once again be at peace with the fates. Or, rather, back in sync. Hmm. We need more convincing.”

The deficits/surpluses relative to past experience took a big hit. Last year, 45 Bcf was injected, and the five-year average was for a 6 Bcf build. Kyle Cooper of IAF Advisors in Houston calculated a 92 Bcf pull, and ICAP Energy was looking for a 102 Bcf decline. Bentek Energy saw storage dropping 89 Bcf.

The Producing region salt cavern storage figure decreased by 2 Bcf from the previous week to 178 Bcf, while the non-salt cavern figure declined by 16 Bcf to 558 Bcf. The EIA first split Producing Region facility types in storage report footnotes in March 2012 in an effort to give analysts and industry more comprehensive information on the relationship between natural gas inventory changes and types of storage facilities (see Daily GPI, March 26, 2012).

©Copyright 2013Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news reportmay not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in anyform, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.