The market was finding pockets of heating load that it must have ignored earlier, for despite generally bearish talk on Monday, prices rose nearly across the board Tuesday between a little less than a nickel and about 45 cents. A few flat to slightly lower points were almost buried amid the overall advances.

Although the trend in recent days has been toward moderating temperatures in several areas, it is still close to the middle of winter and that means cold weather. The Weather Channel mentioned forecasts of snow Wednesday in parts of the South, Midwest and West. In addition, the natural gas screen’s rise of 6.2 cents Monday and much bigger advances in petroleum-related futures provided a bit of belated support to Tuesday’s cash prices, one source said.

A marketer of gas for several Gulf Coast producers said one customer told her he knew of a private forecaster predicting colder weather in the Northeast than what the National Weather Service is saying, “but I can’t find that forecast myself. Otherwise, I can’t see any reason for today’s higher prices.” She noted the possibility of sleet and snow in Oklahoma and North Texas Tuesday night, but said mercury levels were due to be up into the 60s in a couple of days, when she expects prices to begin tanking.

A producer who trades the Northeast said Monday’s quotes had been going up in late quotes, which often (but not necessarily always) is a signal of next-day price. Tuesday’s numbers averaged about where they had ended Monday. Henry Hub-New York City basis was running at about an “even buck,” he noted. He also observed that the Hub and screen have been tracking much more closely together recently after all the talk of their lack of convergence in November and December.

Most of the Northeast is experiencing average temperatures for this time of year, the producer continued, which means around the low to mid 30s in the NYC area. Since the screen finished about a nickel higher than where Henry Hub traded Tuesday, he expects cash to be a few pennies higher Wednesday, but added the caveat, “It depends on what happens in Access.”

Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) has the only meaningful OFO-like constraint in effect at this time, and at 25% tolerance it isn’t very strict (see Transportation Notes). A marketer is of the opinion that “Transco has been the tail that wagged the Florida market dog for some time now.” Even though Transco doesn’t go into the state, it affects production-area prices on FGT, he said. Most buyers in Florida try to get cheaper supplies in FGT Zones 1 and 2. But when demand is high on Transco, as it has been in the last couple of weeks when the Northeast was frosty, the competition for upstream supply often drives more business to FGT’s pricier Zone 3, the marketer said. (FGT’s Zone 3 was priced about 4 cents above Transco Station 65 Tuesday.)

A long-term bullish development for Rockies producers was news that the Cheyenne Plains was powered up Tuesday. Although its powered capacity is up to 560,000 Dth/d, the pipeline had been free flowing gas before then. Cheyenne Plains, running from the Cheyenne Hub in northeastern Colorado to Greensburg, KS, provides more takeaway capacity from the Rockies to Midcontinent/Midwest markets.

The National Weather Service has a generally bearish outlook for gas prices during the Feb. 7-11 workweek. It looks for above normal temperatures everywhere east of a line running from the eastern Dakotas into northeast Texas, except for normal conditions in Florida, southern Georgia and a thin coastal slice of the Carolinas. Except for Washington state, NWS expects below normal readings almost everywhere west of a line through central New Mexico, curving westward into western Utah and then bulging eastward again to include the western edges of Wyoming and Montana.

Citigroup’s Kyle Cooper made a final estimate of a 216-226 Bcf withdrawal in this week’s storage report for the week ending Jan. 28.

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