Tuesday’s April futures rebound of 31.4 cents was only partially successful in resurrecting the cash market Wednesday due to the imminent start of spring keeping a lid on heating load. A moderate majority of points recorded gains, but most of those were around a dime or less, and quite a lot of flat to a little more than 35 cents lower numbers were in the cash market mix.

Prices were up from 2-3 cents to nearly 55 cents at most points, while the West saw the majority of locations where quotes were flat or softer.

The Carthage Hub in East Texas, which had Tuesday’s biggest drop of an even dollar, had Wednesday’s biggest increase as a one-day restriction on transport from the hub was due to end Thursday. Saying it expected scheduled maintenance at the Carthage Junction #2 and Vixen compressor stations that began at the start of Wednesday’s gas day to the Scheduled Maintenance to be completed within 24 hours, Gulf South said it was accepting and scheduling nominations at both meters for Thursday.

Meanwhile, the failure of Florida Gas Transmission to repeat a warning of a potential Overage Alert Day caused prices to dip a little more than 15 cents and a little more than 35 cents at Florida Gas Zone 3 and the Florida citygate, respectively. (Florida Gas Zone 1 gained a little more than a nickel and Zone 2 was flat.)

A high-linepack OFO by SoCalGas (see Transportation Notes) resulted a drop of about a nickel at the Southern California border. However, Malin and the PG&E citygate recorded even larger losses despite the lack of a PG&E OFO.

Kern River reported normal linepack in all four segments Wednesday, but said it was increasing “due to some unauthorized banking by many parties.” Despite the rising linepack, prices into Kern River were up a few pennies.

Spring officially begins Thursday, but it may seem a bit deceptive with lows around freezing predicted for the day in much of the Midwest and Northeast. It will seem more like true spring weather in the South, which is due for a modest warming trend to begin after a temperature dip Wednesday caused by a stormy cold front moving through the region. That will be true also in the Midcontinent, where such locations as Oklahoma City and Topeka, KS, will see highs rising to either side of 70 Thursday.

Moderate conditions will remain the status quo in much of the West and even freezing lows in the Rockies will be offset to some degree to warming highs in some locations such as Denver, which will peak around 63 Thursday after seeing a high slightly under 60 Wednesday.

Although not all companies in the industry will be taking off for Good Friday, gas will be traded for four-day flows Thursday due to the holiday.

A Midcontinent producer said he was sounding “like a broken record” because little was changing in the regional market. There continue to be more offers than bids, he said.

“Tomorrow [Thursday] will be ugly” for cash prices, the producer went on, due to April futures following Tuesday’s big rebound with an even larger loss of 39 cents Wednesday. It is “what I call the tail (Nymex) wagging the dog (the big cash market),” he said, adding that he wished it was the other way around. Much more spot gas is sold at index or negotiated prices than there is based on the Nymex gas contract, he said, yet the futures market continues to wield inordinate influence on cash market movement.

Business is currently slow on OGT due to warming Oklahoma temperatures, but the Midcontinent will get colder again next week, the producer said.

He noted that February and March are turning out to be much colder than expected, so storage should end the withdrawal season at the end of the month with much lower inventories than what was anticipated as the year began.

Barclays Capital Research analysts George Hopley and Michael Zenker expect an 88 Bcf storage withdrawal to be announced for the week ending March 14. Looking further ahead, Citigroup’s Tim Evans projects pulls of 80 Bcf, 45 Bcf and 50 Bcf for the weeks ending March 14, March 21 and March 28, respectively.

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