The U.S. economy is spending $1 billion, or 60%, less on energy right now than it was a year ago, according to a report by Raymond James & Associates. Since the U.S. GDP is about $28 billion per day, this represents a 3.5% year-over-year windfall to our economy.

“Last year we made the case that higher energy prices were likely to drive the U.S. into a recession. Unfortunately for our bankers, we were too right,” Raymond James analysts Marshall Adkins said in an equity research report. “Today, however, lower energy prices are having the exact opposite impact on the economy. Not only are lower energy prices helping business and consumer pocketbooks, but there are also providing a huge stimulus to the U.S. economy.”

Adkins estimates that U.S. daily expenditures on energy have fallen to $762 million this January from $1,757 million last January, when gas, oil and power prices were at a peak.

“Energy is having a much more significant impact on the economy than any of the other stimulus actions implemented or even suggested by the government. In fact, this one-time energy price benefit seems bigger than all of the government solutions added together,” he said, noting the $60 billion tax cut last year amounted to about $165 million per day of stimulus. Even the new economic stimulus package, if it ever is passed, will pump only another $80-90 billion (or $230 million per day) into the economy. On the home mortgage front, refinancing stimulus began last year at an annual run-rate of $50 million per day and peaked in the third quarter at $200 million per day.

“Even if we add all these stimulus mechanisms (both proposed and enacted) together, it only adds up to around $290 million per day over the last year,” said Adkins. With lower energy costs contributing $1 billion per day, “clearly the impact of these cost savings could cause the economic rebound to happen sooner than people think.”

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