Wednesday’s general market softness was merely a lull in this week’s upward march of prices. Nearly all points were back on the rise Thursday, with the exception of a few small downturns in the Rockies and at scattered other points. Most gains were in the teens, bracketed by some in single digits and others of 20 cents or more in the Northeast, led by Algonquin citygate spikes of about 60 cents that included a peak quote of $9.25.

As some had predicted, Wednesday’s screen gain of a little more than 7 cents was reflected mostly by cash numbers on the succeeding day. But there was no denying that physical load remained strong due to frigid weather in most areas outside Florida, the southern rim of the Gulf Coast, the Southwest and the West Coast.

Several sources look for firmness to continue Friday, at least in eastern markets, even though some areas will experience moderating weather. They cited another gain in natural gas futures of nearly 11 cents that, unlike the day before, was accompanied this time by strong showings in Nymex’s crude oil and heating oil contracts. And there likely will be enough heating demand remaining to offset much of the usual weekend reduction in industrial load, they said.

The EIA said 91 Bcf got withdrawn from storage last week. The figure was close to the estimates of a couple of key industry analysts but was at the high end of the range of guesses by others. After an initial period of negative hesitation, futures traders took it as a bullish signal, especially since the drawdown included two days of a holiday period. Many expect next week’s volume to be significantly higher because of the severe weather this week with no holiday slowdown.

“I thought the storage number was a little bullish,” said a Midcontinent trader. “The market was up, then down, then up again. I expect cash to be up tomorrow. All this snow comes with a price…and I am guessing it is going to be high.”

However, a western utility buyer expects “a little bit lower prices” Friday because regional power prices were falling Thursday for the first time this week, adding, “Besides, it will be the weekend.” He also noted that his San Juan-Bondad purchases started around $3.60 and got pushed up to the mid $3.60s, “but more supply offers were showing up late and somebody hit my last bid” in the mid $3.50s.

Because Thursday’s “Nor’easter” is expected to be moving out to sea, Tennessee was lifting some of its service seals in the Northeast for Thursday. However, due to nominations over capacity, some market area restrictions remain in effect, the pipeline said.

Some suspected that because of the frigid conditions across the northern two-thirds of the East, wellhead freezeoffs might become a market factor. A Midcontinent marketer said reports of actual freezeoffs were negligible, but a bigger problem was production force majeures resulting from losses of power in the ice storm, which caused some gathering system compressor units to shut down. However, such events, occurring mostly in Oklahoma, were nothing major that would sway prices much, he added. “Most of the market this morning [Thursday] was driven by the Northeast cold,” the marketer said.

A producer said she hadn’t lost any Midcontinent production due to freezeoffs yet (“knock on wood”), but said forecasts for the Hugoton Field area in Kansas are that it will stay near freezing over the next two weeks, so the potential for supply losses remains. But she agreed that power losses knocking out compressors were the chief issue currently.

A utility buyer reporting a Florida Gas Transmission citygate in the low $4.50s said Sunshine State temperatures were remaining “very nice,” unlike the ice storm devastation being experienced in states to the north along the East Coast. Load is currently quite low, the buyer added. She hasn’t tried to price Gulfstream deliveries for a while, saying that with her company’s FT volume contracted on FGT, there was not much point in looking around for anything else until that gets used up.

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