Since the dawn of the shale revolution, periodic estimates of technically recoverable U.S. natural gas resources have trended upward. Until now.

That is a key takeaway from the latest installment of the “Future Supply of Natural Gas in the United States,” an authoritative assessment issued biennially by the Potential Gas Committee (PGC). Last week, the PGC reported its latest technically recoverable gas resource estimate: 3,368 Tcf at year-end 2020.

In contrast, PGC reported a 6-Tcf (0.2%) higher technically recoverable gas resources estimate for year-end 2018. The 3,368 Tcf figure breaks a string of seven consecutive biennial increases for the technically recoverable statistic, PGC Executive Director Alexei V. Milkov said Wednesday. Milkov is a professor at the Colorado School...