The La Niña pattern that settled over the United States last month stands to prop up gas demand this winter if the chilly forecast for the northern states holds true.

However, in an era in which Lower 48 demand is now largely influenced by dynamics overseas, the current lack of signaling for a cold winter in Europe puts U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo cancellations back on the table by next spring.

On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said that La Niña conditions, characterized by below-average sea surface temperatures extending across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, were expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. Under such conditions, the jet stream remains farther north...