Thursdays have been a bearish trader’s best friend lately withthree of the last four featuring follow-through selling on theheels of some hefty storage refill estimates. However, yesterdaydid not follow true to form, as traders digested alarger-than-expected 92 Bcf American Gas Association storage refillestimate then managed to push July up 2.5 cents to settle at$2.071. In doing so, several traders remarked, July exhibitedJune-like characteristics marked by narrow trading ranges amidrelatively low volume. June looked to expire without much fussearlier in the week, then the bottom dropped out on the last day.It “looks as if that was more a case of people liquidatingpositions then anything,” a trader reasoned.
Now that July is the near month, opinion is mixed where theprice of summer gas is heading. A Chicago marketer believes thedamage is done. “Storage continues to be a big wet blanket on thismarket. Bulls are hanging their hats on expectations of a hotsummer. I’ve got news for them. It was hot last week and we put 92Bcf into the ground and lost a dime. What is going to be differentin July and August?”
However, a Midcontinent marketer is cautiously bullish. “Everylogical indicator out there tells us futures is headed lower.However, this is natural gas, and it might be time to throwfundamental analysis out the window. July has tried to broach themagical $2 level a couple times but failed. We are looking for atest of the $2.13 level. In the next week or so.” July was alreadyup 3.6 cents to $2.107 in the evening Nymex ACCESS session.
Resistance stands in the $2.12-13 level, with support layered inat $2.00 ahead of the bottom of the downtrend channel at $1.97.
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