Based on some solid increases in heating load in parts of the West and not quite as substantial gains in other areas, prices were flat to higher at virtually all points Wednesday. The cash market also had meager prior-day screen support from the 5.3-cent gain by April futures on Tuesday.

A loss of about a nickel at NGPL-Louisiana was the sole exception to numbers ranging from flat to up about a quarter. A large majority of the gains were in single digits, with the Midcontinent, Rockies and San Juan Basin recording most of the upticks exceeding a dime.

Recent blizzard conditions in the northern Rockies were tapering to some extent, but snowfall remained in the regional forecast. Forecasts of Thursday lows in the teens and single digits ensured robust heating load in the region. However, seasonal conditions dominated the overall weather outlook.

Despite Wednesday’s overall price firmness, predictions of freezing temperatures were pretty scarce outside the Rockies, Upper Plains and Alberta. NOVA said drafting of its system raised the potential for a change of its imbalance tolerance range Wednesday, but it did not announce any change.

Northern Natural Gas was projecting system weighted average temperatures hovering on either side of freezing from Thursday through Saturday, which contributed to increases of 12-13 cents or so at the pipeline’s demarc and Ventura trading points.

Anticipation of a very small pull, or even a net injection prior to the end of withdrawal season, put an end to a four-day streak of futures gains. However, Thursday’s cash market will have only negligible negative screen guidance after the April futures contract fell by 1.8 cents Wednesday (see related story).

A Texas-based marketer said he was not surprised by the modest overall cash price strength, saying there was still some chilly to cold weather hanging around in areas besides Western Canada and the upper half of the U.S. West. April baseload prices were looking fairly strong at the outset of bidweek, he said. Initial Chicago citygate quotes were going at index plus 30 cents, while physical basis for Chicago was minus 60-63 cents, he said.

A marketer in the Upper Midwest said local temperatures were “not bad” at midweek but should be getting colder by the weekend. It will just be normal weather for late March, though, she added. She expressed the hope that Wednesday’s Nymex softness continues so basis prices will get cheaper for April.

SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Cameron Horwitz said he’s looking for a 7 Bcf storage withdrawal to be reported for the week ending March 20.

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