Despite some hints of moderating weather in a couple of areas, this week’s heat-based rally in the cash market continued Tuesday with some extra support from a dime-plus futures gain. A slight majority of points registered rises in the teens, but there was a big increase from Monday in the number of upticks between a nickel and a dime, indicating a slowdown of upward momentum.

The California border-SoCalGas realized Tuesday’s only loss of about 20 cents, but retained its highest-priced ranking handily, besting the second-place PG&E citygate by well over a dollar.

Several sources agreed that other than heat-related buying, the market was relatively inactive Tuesday. “Everybody is waiting on what is expected by consensus to be another big AGA [storage injection] number,” one said. Another trader said guesses about the AGA volume have grown larger; he was hearing up to 120 Bcf Tuesday. However, he added, “I think that’s just people maneuvering so if it [report] comes in at 110, they can say it’s worth a price rally,” even if such a rally might be somewhat artificial.

“We’re still on track for a Northeast cooldown” of at least 10 degrees today, a marketer said, but he thinks it will only bring down Northeast prices, while other areas stay firmer.

However, parts of the Midwest also are due to get a little cooler as a high-pressure system moves southward from Canada. Despite that development, a Midcontinent trader said he still saw “a decent amount” of buying by Midwest power generation interests Tuesday. However, he doesn’t think everyone is buying gas for the day they need it, but rather shuttling storage in and out based on day-to-day price developments. He looks for the cash market to trade mostly sideways for about another week, but then to start rallying based on expectations that “it’s going to get even warmer in the latter half of July in the midsection of the U.S.”

Dawn numbers saw a strong push up into the mid $3.20s, said a trader, who cited strength in both futures and intra-Alberta pricing as Dawn stimulants.

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