March natural gas futures finally got a little traction Tuesday, but not enough to break out of their recently formed $5.95-6.27 trading range. While the prompt month gained 8.2 cents on the session to settle at $6.175, market watchers still question what the next move will be.

Even though it settled only 8.2 cents higher, the close marked only the second time in the last five sessions that March futures did not settle at unchanged, or nearly unchanged.

“The natural gas market has gone into a full stall here, with volatility diving and prices stuck within the range of the past six weeks,” said IFR Energy Services Tim Evans. “The 262 Bcf year-on-five-year average storage surplus remains a weight around the market’s neck, but this is not a fresh bearish development attracting an ongoing flow of selling.”

Evans noted that while temperatures are mild this week, there is still enough cold in the forecast as a reminder that winter is not quite over. The analyst warned not to look for the Energy Information Administration’s natural gas storage report Thursday to give the market a push. He is looking for a 140-160 Bcf net withdrawal for the week ended Feb. 11, which would roughly match the 149 Bcf five-year average for the period.

“Despite the lack of movement, we note the 405,761 contracts of total open interest resident here is close to the same as at the October peak in prices,” Evans said. “This suggests that there is still much at stake and potential for a major price swing once it does become clear which way the equilibrium is breaking.”

He noted that Tuesday’s break above the $6.11 high from Monday adds further confirmation to the support at $5.95-5.97 as the latest floor beneath the market. “Failure to hold there would put the equilibrium in the market at risk, even though March would still have its $5.90 low from Jan. 12 and the Jan. 3 trough at $5.77 beneath it.”

Looking higher, Evans said the downtrend resistance off the January highs matches the $6.27 high from last week as nearby resistance. “The market would have to pop above that cap in order to turn the $5.95-5.97 lows into a confirmed near double bottom.”

Advest Inc.’s Jay Levine summed up recent natural gas futures trading as “the quiet before the storm,” adding that “this town has been awfully quiet the past several days…but the time is fast approaching and the [winter] clock is ticking.” He added that “there are bound to be periods of calm and inactivity to balance out the times when it is not.”

Levine said that while he thinks Thursday’s storage report will reveal a bearish draw of 125 Bcf, he doubts that it will make much of a difference to a market that has continued to act “indifferently” to energy fundamentals.

Noting that his estimation for this week’s EIA report unfortunately carries a high degree of uncertainty, Citigroup’s Kyle Cooper said he is on the lower end of a wide range and looks for a withdrawal between 112 Bcf and 102 Bcf.

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