After testing the lower end of the recent range in natural gas futures on Monday, traders on Tuesday decided to give the upside a go as the March contract put in a high of $4.715 during the regular session before closing at $4.513, down 4.4 cents from Monday’s close.

After trading in a loose range between $4.300 and $4.800 since mid-January, traders and analysts are getting a little fidgety in waiting for the market to break out in one direction or the other. Unlike Monday’s action — which only tested the downside of the recent range — the front-month contract actually tested both parameters on Tuesday. After reaching an overnight Monday high of $4.728, March futures put in a low of $4.360 just after noon EST Tuesday. From there the contract rebounded to close out the regular session.

“The natural gas market failed to break the recent equilibrium to the downside on Monday [and] has now probed the upper part of the recent price range in an attempt to move higher, with both moves indicating that the market is starved for trading volume, with traders tired of repeatedly buying and selling in the $4.50 area it has held since Jan. 19,” said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “In the current case, the 11- to 15-day forecast for below-normal temperatures across most of the continental U.S. does appear to be a supportive weather development, although it wouldn’t hurt to see a few more weather updates with similar results to help reinforce that view.”

The Frontier Weather six- to 10-day forecast covering Feb. 8-12 calls for below-normal temperatures along the West Coast and above-normal temperatures east of the Rockies, with some areas expected to see readings 12-16 degrees warmer than normal. In the 11- to 15-day forecast for Feb. 13-17, the forecasting firm said temperatures are expected to average below normal across most of the continental U.S., with normal readings in New England being the most notable exception.

However, there are conflicting forecasts, which might halt bullish traders in their tracks. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) six- to 10-day forecast for Feb. 9-13 sees above-normal temperatures dominating east of a vertical line from central Texas up through eastern Kansas and eastern North Dakota. A large portion of the West will remain colder than normal during the period. The NWS eight- to 14-day forecast covering Feb.11-17 sees things cooling off somewhat, with colder-than-normal conditions west of a vertical line from western Texas up through western Minnesota, while the East Coast and Southeast remain warmer than normal.

Taking an early look at the Energy Information Administration’s natural gas storage report for the week ended Jan. 30, Evans said his preliminary expectation is for a 210 Bcf withdrawal. The number that will be revealed Thursday morning at 10:30 a.m. EST will be compared to the 221 Bcf draw for last year’s week and the 183 Bcf five-year average pull.

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