Ending its consecutive streak of daily increases at five, the July natural gas futures contract registered a slow session on Friday, hitting a low of $6.495 before closing at $6.52, down 6.2 cents on the day. Participation was sparse as 45,845 contracts changed hands during what one trader called a “snoozer” session.

After finding resistance in the $6.58 area in morning trading, the prompt month receded to trade within the $6.50-$6.57 range for the remainder of the afternoon. The July contract has experienced its fair share of streaks already. Prior to the five-day streak just ended, July had ventured downward for six consecutive days, ending on June 14.

“Friday was pretty boring,” a Washington DC-based broker said. “Technically speaking, the day was uneventful.” He noted that the market used the day to slightly relieve the developing overbought condition.

“I think it was just a rest day as much as anything else. It was an inside day,” the broker added, noting that “we didn’t make a new high or a new low. I still think this move since June 9 with the $5.96 low is still enforced until we see something else develop.”

Looking ahead, the broker said he believes that natural gas is separating a little bit from moving in lockstep with crude, which it has been doing for the last couple of months. “The weather fundamentals are going to start to drive natural gas on its own a little,” he said. “I think the support we have seen in the natural gas futures market has been from mildly supportive weather teamed with the hangover from the uncertainty on the crude side.”

Support from warmer weather does appear to be in the forecast, according to New York City-based Weather 2000, which claims that a “broken record” of warm and humid air masses over much of the nation will continue.

“It doesn’t take a single record-hot day to yield a very hot month,” the forecasting firm said. “And it doesn’t take a single record-hot month to yield a very hot season.”

The company contends that this has been the case for much of June, where warm-weather results are falling below the radar screen, but nonetheless adding to “consistent and impressive warm and muggy scenarios” for the West, South and East regions of the United States.

Weather 2000 warned that unless you’re in the North-Central/Midwest/Northern-tier, there is very little if any cool relief in sight, with warmth and mugginess often compounding over streaks of four to six days.

UBS analyst Ron Barone said he believes that overall warm weather will be followed by mixed conditions. “For the week ended June 12, 2004, national cooling degree day temperatures were 21% warmer than normal (versus 3% cooler in the prior week) and 23% warmer than last year (versus 16% warmer),” he said. “Season-to-date, cooling degree-day temperatures are averaging 29% warmer than normal and 26% warmer than last year.”

As for the week ended June 19, Barone noted that overall readings have continued to climb, with warm temps in the eastern third of the U.S. and “scorching” temps in portions of the Southwest and south central regions.

The National Weather Service’s latest six-to-10-day outlook calls for below normal temperatures in parts of the Northeast, Midwest and Southwest, with above normal readings in the Southeast and Northwest.

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