With quotes rising at all but two points Monday, the cash market managed to recover some of the price ground it had lost on the preceding Friday. Weather fundamentals were generally moderate except for heating load on either side of the Canadian border and cooling load stretching from the western end of the South through the Southwest. The market also derived support from an increase in industrial load following the weekend.

A flat Southern Natural Gas and a loss of about 30 cents at the Florida citygate were the exceptions to increases ranging from about a nickel to 40 cents or so. The Midcontinent and Northeast citygates tended to see most of the largest gains.

Monday’s cash prices had negative guidance from the previous Friday’s 9.5-cent drop by May futures, but the physical market will have ample positive backing after the prompt-month natural gas contract followed the lead of soaring petroleum-based futures and skyrocketed by 46.9 cents (see related story).

Prices will need the screen support to keep rising, since moderate temperatures will continue to dominate the weather picture in many areas. Overnight lows will still be near freezing Tuesday in New England, the Midwest, the Rockies, Western Canada and parts of the Pacific Northwest, but highs will be around 50 degrees or more. And a slow-moving cold front can be expected to reduce some of the cooling demand in eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and northeast Texas, according to The Weather Channel.

Southern Natural Gas quotes likely failed to match the strength of other Gulf Coast pipes due to mild to cool conditions in its East Coast market area in Georgia and the Carolinas. Charlotte, NC, and Atlanta were expected to see highs on either side of 70 degrees Tuesday. And although Florida Gas Zone 3 in the production area rose nearly 30 cents, the Florida citygate fell after Florida Gas Transmission ended an Overage Alert Day for market-area customers that had been in place Tuesday through Friday of last week (see Transportation Notes).

Southern California border prices got a boost from SoCalGas reporting that it had regained 550 MMcf/d in storage injection capacity in recent days (see Transportation Notes). Border numbers were up about a quarter.

Marveling at the extraordinary advance at Nymex, a producer trading representative said it “has to be” that natural gas futures were riding the coattails of oil strength.

She said she didn’t know whether the gas was destined for storage or being used for current burns, “but we’re not having any trouble at all” finding willing buyers. However, she noted that one customer had told her he was selling out of storage Monday. “I probably could have sold some gas to him early,” she said, but after prices started running higher he apparently decided to profit from his storage account.

The trader said it doesn’t look like North Texas is going to get very hot this week; only one day has a forecast high above 80 degrees.

A utility buyer in the South said it’s warming up in his company’s service area, but he’s rarely involved in the daily market these days. “We’re putting term gas in storage” without having to buy any swing supplies, he said. The utility got down to about the 20% level in its storage accounts, “and we have a long way to go” in filling them back up. He felt fortunate that the utility didn’t have to pay Monday’s higher spot prices.

The Rockies market “has got a little bit of cold weather but not much else,” said a marketer. The region actually was getting warmer Monday than it had been during the weekend, he said, so heating demand was somewhat limited.

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