In yet another in the string of topsy-turvy trading sessions, natural gas futures sunk lower Monday, as traders took profits following Friday’s advance and liquidated positions ahead of the year-end close. The selling was most concentrated just before the 1 p.m. EST closing bell, demoting the February 2002 contract to its lowest point since April 1999. At $2.570, February was down 20.4 cents for the session and just off its 32 month low at $2.545.

Although they were feeling the brunt of the cold weather on their way to work, traders Monday were quick to point to moderating temperatures forecast in the latest medium range forecast as a reason for the selling pressure. According to the latest six- to 10-day forecast by the National Weather Service, above-normal temperatures are expected over a large area of the continental U.S., from the Pacific Northwest clear across the country to the Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, below-normal temperatures will be confined to Florida and coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas. Normal mercury readings are forecast for the rest of the East Coast and south central U.S., an area that covers less than a third of the country.

Also of impact Monday were crude oil prices, which tumbled lower on fears that oil exporting countries — both OPEC and non-OPEC — will not fully comply with recently pledged cuts. After closing above $21 on Dec. 26, the February contract has racked up three-straight down days to close at $19.84 Monday.

Looking ahead, traders are anxious to learn how much gas was withdrawn from storage last week. The American Gas Association has pushed back its release of that information from Wednesday at 2 p.m. EST to Thursday at 2 p.m. EST again this week because of the holiday. Although expectations are for the association to announce the first triple-digit withdrawal of the season, the storage outlook remains bearish. Last year at this time the market experienced a whopping 209 Bcf withdrawal and anything short of that this week will result in another increase to the oft-quoted year-on-year surplus currently at 1,042 Bcf. Further out on the horizon, analysts believe the market may have a difficult time next week matching last year’s 167 Bcf takeaway.

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