The futures market sauntered into the weekend Friday in a verysimilar fashion to the way it traded throughout the week-in aboring, hum-drum manner. The March contract was limited to a paltry2.5-cent trading range, slipping 0.1 cents lower to settle at$1.745. Estimated volume was evidence of the quiet trading as only42,085 contracts changed hands.

Sources said cash prices, which sunk slightly at many locations,gave traders a reason to sell ahead of the weekend. However, onemarketer was surprised the March contract was able to escapewithout sustaining more substantial losses. “I was looking for theMarch contract to test the contract low at $1.725, but the sellingdried up at $1.735.”

Another source agreed, adding that bulls squandered their onlyhope of salvaging the market this week on Thursday when they wereunable to hold onto early morning gains. Instead, fund sellingbecame the feature of the day as speculators rolled March positionsinto April. “That is why the open interest for April shot up bymore than 5,000 [Friday],” he explained.

Looking ahead, he feels the next week will could either make orbreak this market. “Technically, the market has been forming whatappears to be a bottom over the past couple weeks. That has set thestage for a potential rally. But if we don’t get the rally soon,the downtrend will likely resume and bulls will likely have to waituntil April for another stab at higher prices.”

But a California marketer thinks the market may not have to waitany further than Monday to see into the market’s crystal ball.”Monday’s trading range often sets the tone for the trading weekwith prices making either a high or a low, which often will holdfor the rest of the week. [Last] week the market raced out of thegate and notched a $1.82 high, which served as the high for therest of the week.” And although he thinks his “Monday rule” willhold again this week, he is not sure yet whether it will spell outhigher or lower prices. “That is the only problem with the Mondayrule, you have to wait until Monday,” he lamented.

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