Coming in a little over the industry consensus but well within overall expectations, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday that 151 Bcf was pulled from underground natural gas stocks for the week ended Dec. 31.

Immediately following the report, February natural gas futures dropped 8.5 cents to trade at $5.76, before rallying higher to notch a morning high of $5.93 just before 11 a.m. (EST). The prompt month continued higher in the afternoon, pushing back above $6 before settling at $6.049, up 21.6 cents for the day.

“I think there is more to this rally,” said Commercial Brokerage Corp.’s Ed Kennedy. “Depending on what system you’re using, $6.10 to $6.13 would be my next level ahead of the mid-$6.40s.”

As to whether or not this marked any type of plateau, Kennedy said he believes that trading on Thursday was short-covering, nothing more. “We did get some strength from crude futures, which may be a horse of another color here in a few days,” he said. “In other words, it may be building a bottom over on the crude side.”

The petroleum futures complex recorded sizeable gains on Thursday as well. February heating oil futures and February crude futures increased by 6.29 cents a gallon and $2.17 a barrel, respectively.

While the Reuters survey said the industry was calling for a 135 to 140 Bcf pull for the week, analysts such as Citigroup’s Kyle Cooper nailed the report with a withdrawal prediction of between 154 and 144 Bcf.

“The withdrawal was a little bit bigger than people expected, but so what,” Kennedy added. “We have got a lot of gas in the ground and don’t forget, even though it is January outside in the real world, we are trading February. We are running out of winter on the board. Cold temperatures now don’t do anything for the expectations of February.”

Due to the fact that the storage report was the 53rd of the year when most years only have 52, comparing it to any historical information is a stretch (see related story). Because the 53rd report is rare, one would have to look all of the way back to 1999 to find actual physical data to compare to. During that 53 report year, 140 Bcf was withdrawn for the week ended Dec. 31, 1999, leaving stocks at 2,523 Bcf.

According to the data released by the EIA, the five-year average weekly withdrawal for the week ended Dec. 31, 2004 is 72 Bcf. However, it should be noted that this number is artificially low because the EIA used partial week data — ending Dec. 31 of each year — in estimating its five-year average for the 53rd week.

For more information on the EIA’s 53rd week policy ,visit https://www.eia.doe.gov/, click on “Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report”, then on “Methodology.”

As of Dec. 31, working gas in storage stood at 2,698 Bcf, according to EIA estimates. Stocks are now 79 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 279 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,419 Bcf. The East region saw a 99 Bcf withdrawal, while the Producing and West regions pulled 40 Bcf and 12 Bcf, respectively.

The EIA said that due to the forthcoming Inauguration Day holiday, the storage report for the week ending Jan. 14 will be released on Friday, Jan. 21, between 10:30 a.m. and 10:40 a.m. (EST) (see Daily GPI, Jan. 6).

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