Taking some time off following last week’s trading rampage, April natural gas futures on Monday kept their movement to a minimum. Last week, April natural gas futures went for a run, settling 72.8 cents higher on Friday than the previous week’s settle.

On Monday, the prompt month zigzagged for a bit, hitting a low on the day of $6.61 before rebounding back near where it started the day. April settled at $6.73, up 1.5 cents on the session.

As the Northeast continues to be pounded by a nor’easter, some market watchers say the cold weather could be enough to break the futures market out of its recent range.

Released on Sunday, the National Weather Service’s (NWS) six-to-10-day outlook calls for temperatures in a little more than the eastern third of the U.S. to remain below normal. In addition, the NWS’ eight-to-14-day outlook only gets colder, with the colder than normal dividing line creeping a little farther west.

“If you include Access trading, we almost got up to the prior high of $6.805, so for virtual purposes we got a double top at $6.800 to $6.805,” said Tom Saal of Commercial Brokerage Corp. in Miami. “The market did not reject that price too much because we didn’t fall off a large amount after reaching it. So now we will see if this cold weather prevails and sticks around. If it does, we could see a little more of a push to the upside.”

Saal called the current cold pattern in the Northeast a “fortifying factor” that allowed the market to stretch higher. However, he noted that the market will have to see a little more prolonged cold from this front to get April over that $6.80 area. “If we break the $6.805 high, the next level would be $7.00,” he said. “Until we break that $6.805, this push higher cannot be labeled an uptrend.” Saal added that the market for some time has been stuck going sideways within a big range, from sub-$6.00 to $6.80.

Rafferty Technical Research’s Steve Blair said he believes the weather is definitely playing a part in natural gas futures. “With heating oil being up on weather, it is obvious that these cold temperatures in the East are certainly helping to keep natural propped up,” he said. “As long as we continue to get this kind of weather up here in the Northeast, it is not going to make it any easier for the bears to push this thing down.

“On Monday, I know we got back down underneath our breakout level of $6.67 that we had set last week,” Blair said. “However, by closing above it again, I believe it signals the continuation of the strength in the market.”

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