With several market areas still getting a limited early taste of winter, cash prices managed to eke out moderate gains Thursday at a slight majority of points. But there were almost as many points ranging from flat to down as much as 30-45 cents, although most losses were less than a dime.

Universal declines are anticipated in Friday trading since moderating weather trends are predicted over the weekend in the Midwest, South and parts of the West. A screen drop of more than half a dollar Thursday and the usual drop in industrial load over a weekend are other bearish influences on Friday’s market.

The Energy Information Administration made it official: storage is now at record levels of 3,293 Bcf in the agency’s weekly survey that was initiated 10 years ago (but in the earlier monthly survey by EIA, the all-time champ inventory still stands at the awesome level of 3,472 from November 1990). But as noted by some (see futures story), Nymex traders were totally unimpressed since the new weekly record had been widely anticipated since late summer.

A meltdown in petroleum-based futures products did impress the exchange’s gas traders, however. A $2-plus plunge brought in crude oil for December delivery down to $48.82/bbl, the contract’s first daily settlement below $49 since late September. Heating oil and unleaded gasoline futures also took dives.

It seemed as if the Northeast market might have a chance of avoiding Friday softness since chilly weather is due to remain in the region and a new cold front from Canada is expected to move in by Monday. But a marketer doesn’t think so. “It’s more wet than cold” in the Northeast, she said, noting that Thursday’s low was in the 30s in the New York City metropolitan area while the day’s high was expected to be in the upper 40s. She was “sure” that the big Nymex crash Thursday will lead cash lower for the weekend, saying there’s not enough heating demand to overcome that drag on prices. Besides, storage at record levels has got to be bearish psychologically to the physical market, she said.

Also, prices were going down in late trading Thursday, which is nearly always a good indicator of market direction the following day, the marketer added.

It’s “warm” here in Calgary, said a producer, and NOVA was reflecting that by saying it might have to combat excess linepack with an imbalance tolerance change to discourage packing the system. The pipe’s target linepack level is 14.013 Bcf, he said, and Thursday’s actual level was 14.476 Bcf; however, no tolerance change was implemented.

The producer thought it kind of odd that California was “pulling big for Friday” but not so much in Chicago because Chicago is considerably colder than most of California. But for whatever reason Chicago buyers were leaving quite a bit of gas in Western Canada, he said.

The fuel buyer for a Lower Midwest utility said throughput got a solid boost from a freezing low temperature Thursday, although he said the weather was “about normal for this time of year. Highs around 70 are due Saturday and Sunday, to be followed by cooling off again next week, he said. “We wouldn’t call it winter yet, though.”

Another scant reduction of offshore shut-ins was reported by Minerals Management Service. It said outages had shrunk by a mere 3.1 MMcf/d Thursday from the day before to 742.88 MMcf/d.

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