Don’t put your duck tape and plywood away just yet. Althoughthere’s been a lull so far in the hurricane season, the NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and renowned ColoradoState University forecaster Dr. William M. Gray both still arepredicting a whopper season this year in the North Atlantic andCaribbean Sea during the peak period from mid-August throughmid-October.

In an update released last Friday, Gray said he’s sticking withhis previous forecast of much above average hurricane activity,including 14 named tropical storms (compared to the average of 9.3per year), nine hurricanes (compared to the average 5.8) and fourintense hurricanes (compared to the average of 2.2 per year). Forthe Gulf Coast region from Brownsville, TX, to Spring Hill, FL,Gray sees a 73% probability that a hurricane will make landfallthis year compared to the average probability of only 60%. There’sa 40% probability that an intense hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5)will make landfall on the Gulf Coast compared to the averageprobability of 30%, he said.

“The observation of only one named storm (tropical storm Arlene)up to Aug. 6 is judged to have little or no relationship to whetherwe will have an overall active or inactive hurricane season,” Graysaid. “Many very active hurricane seasons have experienced littlehurricane activity until mid or late August.”

Gray’s conclusions closely matched those of NOAA scientists, whoalso released a forecast update this week. NOAA’s ClimatePrediction Center (CPC) still expects three or more intenseAtlantic hurricanes this season, and warned residents living incommunities along the East and Gulf coasts to remain prepared.

“Last year we had fourteen named storms, and the first hurricane(Bonnie) didn’t develop until mid-August,” noted Gerald Bell, aresearch meteorologist with the CPC. “This year, many of the mostprominent atmospheric and oceanic factors that can generatetropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin arealready in place, and are expected to persist through the season.Just because we haven’t seen a hurricane yet this year, don’t getfooled into thinking that this will be a light season.”

He said hurricane producing conditions are expected to persistbecause of their strong link to existing patterns of tropicalrainfall and cooler-than-average tropical Pacific Oceantemperatures (La Ni¤a), both of which are expected to continuethrough the remainder of the hurricane season.

Two additional factors – reduced wind shear over the CaribbeanSea and a northward extension of deep tropical moisture andrainfall to the hurricane development region – which are typicallyobserved during active hurricane seasons, are not yet in place butare expected to develop during the coming weeks, Bell added.

The observation of only one tropical storm in the Atlantic sinceJune is normal for this time of year, NOAA said in its update.”With only one tropical storm so far, the potential remains highfor considerable activity in the 10 weeks remaining in the mostactive part of the typical season,” said Jerry Jarrell, director ofNOAA’s National Hurricane Center.

The 1998 hurricane season produced 14 tropical storms, includingthree major hurricanes. These storms inflicted $7.3 billion indamages and 23 fatalities in the United States alone. In an averageseason, the Atlantic Basin experiences between five and sixhurricanes, two of which are severe and 1.5 storms make land fall.

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