As the energy industry and the states of Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi continue to sort through the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, recently upgraded Tropical Storm Ophelia off the coast of Florida has some forecasters wondering whether they might be suffering from Deja vu. The forecasting gurus aren’t sure of the storm’s path yet, but agree it’s one to watch.

As of 5 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, the center of Ophelia was located 80 miles east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, FL., remaining almost stationary with sustained wind speeds of 50 mph. Some strengthening was expected over the next 24 hours.

In a storm update Wednesday, AccuWeather.com warned that later this week or over the coming weekend, this system could end up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico with high pressure expected to build to the north, turning the steering winds more out of the east, resulting in a westward movement. Given persistent surface pressure falls, very warm water temperatures and decreasing wind shear, AccuWeather.com said Ophelia should continue to strengthen, noting that if the system stays over water through Thursday, it could become a Category 1 hurricane.

“Some computer model output is showing Ophelia moving west-northwest in the Gulf of Mexico and moving into southeastern Louisiana next Monday night,” AccuWeather.com said. “Other computer models either show the system stalling off the northeast Florida coast or heading north, then northeast off the Carolina coast in the long term. So, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the future movement of this system and all interests along the southeast U.S. coast — and even the Gulf coast — should monitor the progress of Ophelia.

In his Wednesday morning address, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Joe Bastardi called for Ophelia to cause rain, become a hurricane, and proceed “west or west southwest to interior Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it,” he said.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami said late Wednesday that forecasts for Ophelia’s path are “highly uncertain” as the forecasting models are in “great disagreement.” Earlier in the day, the agency noted that two of the models showed Ophelia going westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico. “This is probably the worst case scenario for the northern Gulf Coast,” the NHC said. “The other models keep Ophelia looping near the Southeast U.S. Coast.”

In the 5 p.m. EDT Wednesday update, the NHC said the model that originally looped the cyclone back to the West now is showing a track to the northeast. Another model which originally projected that Ophelia would turn northeast away from Florida, now is bringing the storm back to the coast. Yet another model “stubbornly insists on a track to the west-northwest toward Florida…and the story goes on and on,” the NHC said.

The agency said when there is large disagreement among the forecasting models, the best option is to forecast little motion. “Therefore, the official forecast shows a northwestward and northward drift, but the bottom line is that Ophelia will likely meander just off the northern Florida and southeast Georgia coasts for the next five days.”

IFR Energy Services analyst Tim Evans said Ophelia should definitely be watched. “What Ophelia has in common with Katrina is it is not moving that fast, so there is the potential for that storm to wander around a bit before it really decides what it is going to do,” he said. “That has to keep people a little nervous.”

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