While taking somewhat different sides regarding what areas of the country will be warm over the next few months, forecasting firms Weather 2000 and AccuWeather Inc. agree that the Southeast and South Central areas of the United States probably are in for an active September as far as tropical storm/hurricane activity is concerned.

AccuWeather’s meteorologists urged residents along the coast of the Southeastern United States to be on alert for one or more hurricanes or tropical storms in September. The company said it is confident that in September, high pressure systems over the southwestern Atlantic will be far enough offshore to allow tropical cyclones to make landfall on the Atlantic coast.

Weather 2000 said its research shows that if Tropical Depression #10 — which would be named Fabian if it becomes a storm — in the Atlantic Basin eventually approaches the United States, there is a 40% chance of a Gulf of Mexico entry and a 60% chance of an Atlantic Seaboard encounter.

“On this journey, Fabian should move in a rather linear path, skimming just to the north of the Windward Islands,” Weather 2000 said. “[The] only factor that should delay or prohibit intensification to hurricane status would be interaction with some mid-level drier air over the weekend.”

The New York City-based consulting firm noted that Tropical Depression #11 (or potentially Grace) might join the party sometime over the next five days. “Nothing in close proximity to North America piques our interest, however, so time is on our side with regards to monitoring, tracking and preparing for these storms.”

Regarding normal storm activity, Weather 2000 warned that it is likely that there will be much more severe weather in the weeks and months ahead. The company highlighted the Mississippi/Ohio Valley regions all the way to the Atlantic Seaboard and called for sporadic monsoonal precipitation from dissipating Tropical Depression Ignacio across the Southwest and Southern California.

Weather 2000 said that while it is far too early to predict any specific early fall warm-ups or technical Indian Summer episodes, “our old friend,” the Warm-West/Cool-East Pattern, is expected to “stay for September.”

Looking into September and October, the company said localized and regional idiosyncrasies and weather exceptions should fade after the Labor Day Weekend, engulfing much of the West with broad, subsiding ridging and warmth, and cooling of the eastern third with late summer storms, clouds and some crisper Canadian air masses.

“Our research is skeptical that this upcoming ‘cool air intrusion,’ will be nearly as intense or long-lasting for America’s heartland as models and [National Weather Service] outlooks may indicate,” Weather 2000 said in an update. “The surface drought — atmosphere feedback which has assisted so many Rockies to Mississippi locations to sizzle in August — will likely continue to throw off prevailing thoughts, which is why our predicted anomalies are much more neutral for these parts.”

Even though the company is forecasting “net-cool” for the East and “net-warm” for the West for the historically volatile September-October period, exceptions are bound to arise, it said. “All it takes is a wacky warm week out East or a wacky cool week out West, and all of a sudden you have both above normal [Heating Degree Days] and [Cooling Degree Days] for the month on your hands, so these particular statistics should be taken with a grain of salt over the next eight weeks.”

In another take on the coming temperature situation, AccuWeather, in its 30- to 90-day forecast for the September-November period, looks for it to be colder than normal for the northern Rockies and northern Plains, especially during the second half of autumn.

“Above-normal temperatures are expected from the extreme southern Rockies and Texas through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic states and southern New England,” the State College, PA-based weather service said. “The Southeast also should be above normal. Near-normal temperatures may occur in the Pacific Northwest, the central Rockies, the central Plains, mid and upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and northern New England.”

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