As the new year has brought steep mercury drops in many areas of the United States, many forecasters including AccuWeather.com, Weather 2000 and WSI Corp. are calling for the freeze to stick around for much of January.

Joe Bastardi, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather.com, said it is almost certain that for many people it’s going to be the coldest 20-day period experienced since the winter of 1996.

“This is not unexpected,” Bastardi told NGI. “It’s the same kind of thing that Accuweather predicted in early December. We told people that in January the cold was going to come in big time. Worst case scenario, we are looking at some of the coldest weather in 10 years coming into the United States. It could rival 1994.

“Overall, we are probably looking at some of the coldest 10-day periods down the road here since the winter of 1996 for areas east of the Rockies,” Bastardi continued. “Our forecasts stressed how erratic and how wild the swings would be in the weather this winter. The forecasted numbers that we came up with, which were a bit below normal in the East and a bit above normal in the Southwest, were by way of wider than average swings in the weather. It is something that we better get used to because this is the way the weather is going to run a lot of the time over the next 10-15 years because of the overall pattern in the Pacific and the Atlantic.”

Bastardi, who had forecast that a sustained arctic sweep would hit earlier this month, acknowledged that he was off by a week. He said that this is the same kind of pattern that hit at the start of December, but he noted that a January version is bigger, stronger and tends to last longer overall. The December cold spell was centered on the eastern seaboard, but the January chill will be centered further west around the Ohio Valley. “While the East may be as cold as it was [in December’s chill], further west is going to be even colder this time.

“When you total things up from the period of Jan. 5 to Jan. 25 from the Rockies eastward, most people will be quite a bit below normal,” Bastardi said. “By that, I mean on average 2-4 [degrees below normal], and there will probably be some people with 20-day means as much as 5-6 [degrees] below normal on the west slopes of the Appalachian, the Ohio Valley, the Lakes, all of the way down to Florida.

“Despite times when it gets milder, despite the fact that there can be three to four days where it goes above normal in Chicago, when the cold air comes back, it will come back every bit as strong and perhaps stronger than what we are seeing now,” Bastardi said. “Also of concern to me is the possibility of citrus freezes in the deep South Texas and Florida before we can break out of this regime later in the month to early February.”

Backing up the cold push forecast, Weather 2000 noted that “the intense post-New Year’s wave of arctic air entering the U.S., commenced on cue this past Sunday with impressive results.” The New York-based consulting and forecasting group noted that although the Houston area got struck again Tuesday morning with freezing temperatures and wind chills below 20, “this wave was never supposed to make headline news for the Deep South, nor will it.”

The group added that temperatures will in fact be below normal for the South this week, but the coldest regions will be well north of the Gulf Coast States. “This wave is by far the most severe and widespread cold the contiguous United States has witnessed this season (both in terms of actual temperatures and anomalies),” Weather 2000 said in a Tuesday update. “An incredible 22 states had temperatures below 0°F this morning!”

While the West was walloped at the start of this cold air mass incursion, Weather 2000 forecasters expect “solid ridging” will soon establish itself once again across the western-third of the nation after another few waves of cold air this month.

Looking down the road in the 10+ day timeframe for the United States, Weather 2000 said there is the potential for more cold bursts, noting that there “is still frigid air this year (largely locked up in Central Canada) which is cold enough to make last week’s temperatures look like child’s play.”

While the second half of January is still too difficult to predict, Weather 2000 said that in the short-term the country can expect more of the same, with the chilliest air slowly progressing East, followed by some reinforcing shots and short-waves next week. While bitter cold temperatures never last long, the group warned that “warm-up” predictions for the upper-Midwest are may be overdone by models and other forecasters not incorporating snow-pack effects.

In WSI’s forecast, which was released last Monday, the company’s January outlook called for cooler-than-normal temperatures in most of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., with coolest temperatures, relative to normal, expected from the Central Plains to the Southeast (see Daily GPI, Jan. 6). The forecast calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures in California, Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and northern New England, with the largest positive temperature anomalies expected in the Southwest.

Looking to the January-March period, Billerica, MA-based WSI said that while it is calling for slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Southeast, mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and Gulf Coast states, it looks for warmer-than-normal temperatures elsewhere, with the largest positive temperature anomalies in the Southwest.

WSI’s seasonal outlook for the January-March period references a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).

The forecast takes an even wilder turn in February, where WSI predicts that warmer-than-normal temperatures will sweep through a vast majority of the country, with the exception of most of the northern tier of states, where slightly below-normal temperatures are expected. The group noted that warmest temperatures, relative to normal, are again expected in the Southwest.

According to WSI, March will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Rockies westward, as well as the northern and central Plains, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley, with warmest temperatures, relative to normal, still expected in the Southwest. Colder-than-normal temperatures are expected in the East, Southeast, and Gulf Coast states, with coldest temperatures, relative to normal, expected in the Northeast.

“We expect plenty of Arctic air in the eastern two-thirds of the country in January,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford. “We differ from [the Climate Prediction Center] strongly in our cold Northern Plains forecast, where they predict above-normal temperatures. We also expect the January-March period to average colder-than-normal in the Northeast, while CPC is predicting equal chances of above- and below-normal temperatures.”

Noting that WSI’s forecast indicates colder-than normal temperatures in most of the eastern U.S. in January, consultants with Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) believe that the colder weather across most of the major gas-consuming regions will be bullish for natural gas prices during the month. However, offsetting the bullish January consumption, is the warmer-than-normal outlook for February in all but a few extreme northern locations. ESAI said it expects the January to February change will temper January price increases.

In March, ESAI believes that the warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Plains and Midwestern states will offset higher consumption in the colder than normal Eastern states. “Most important for prices will be the likelihood of ample inventories in March as a result of the early season buildup and warmer temperatures in December and February, the group said in conjunction with WSI’s forecast release. “The outlook for adequate end-season inventories will dampen price volatility and should prove bearish for prices, particularly during February.”

ESAI added that power prices will be closely linked to gas in the Eastern states and thus should be moderated by the lessened potential for extended gas price spikes.

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