Looking at the weather scenario following what has been a difficult hurricane season, Andover, MA-based WSI Corp. said it expects the November-December period to be warmer-than-normal for a majority of the United States.

Referencing a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000), WSI said it expects the October-November period to average cooler-than-normal in most of the northern half of the US, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest, as well as the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast states, while warmer-than-normal temperatures will be confined to the Pacific Coast states, the Southwest, and the Southeast.

“We expect widespread areas of below-normal temperatures in October, with the cold weather continuing in the northern and central Plains in November and December,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford. “We currently expect near to slightly above-normal temperatures in most of the eastern US in November and December.”

In the month-to-month breakdown, the forecaster is calling for cooler-than-normal temperatures throughout the country in October except for Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Florida, the Southwest and West Texas. The Southwest is expected to be warmer than normal for the month.

As a result, the company believes that October shoulder demand for power and gas will lower the impacts of variations in weather. “With the expectation of much cooler-than-normal temperatures in late October, some early season natural gas demand could kick in, however, inventories are high and early demand should not be overly bullish for natural gas prices,” WSI said.

With the arrival of November, temperatures are expected to actually be warmer than normal for a majority of the country, except the Northeast and north central parts of the U.S.

WSI pointed out that as the natural gas market shifts from inventory building to drawdown mode, above normal heating demand in a few regions in November could cause the market to be concerned that a higher rate of drawdowns for natural gas may be indicative of a longer-term trend. “High natural gas inventories entering November will help to moderate the effects of this concern. Power prices are unlikely to be affected by shifts in weather and will be impacted more by seasonal generator maintenance,” the company said.

WSI said December will also bring warmer than normal conditions for almost the entire U.S., excluding the north central states, which are expected to be cooler than normal.

The company said that higher heating demand for natural gas in the north central states will be offset by lower demand in other regions. “Power prices are likely to be moderate to weak in most regions as the generator maintenance season ends by early December and the warmer-than-normal forecast indicates that power plants will not be competing aggressively with heating demand for fuels,” WSI said.

WSI Corp. provides weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation, and media markets, and multiple federal and state government agencies.

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