With heat levels rising significantly across the southern half of the U.S. and to a lesser extent in the Lower Midwest and Central/Upper Plains, the increase in power generation loads were enough to push prices higher at all points Monday despite futures weakness on the preceding Friday.

Most gains were in double digits in an uprising that ranged from a nickel to half a dollar or so.

Although some western points could yield to excess supply issues in the region by softening Tuesday, the majority of the cash market is expected to remain firm due to continuing high air conditioning demand after a spike of 30 cents-plus in June natural gas futures. All of Nymex’s energy futures offerings made strong gains after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration echoed previous assessments in announcing that it expects a “very active” 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, whose start is just over a week away (see related story).

A high-inventory OFO (see Transportation Notes) failed to keep the PG&E citygate from rising a little more than a dime, but it was among the smallest increases in the West. In addition, Kern River was reporting high linepack systemwide Monday.

Bentek Energy’s analysis of U.S. hub natural gas flows (https://intelligencepress.com/features/bentek/) showed that nominations at the PG&E citygate for Monday flows were actually at one of their highest levels so far in May. At 2,401 thousand MMBtus for Monday, the citygate volume was nearly 250,000 MMBtus higher than the month-to-date average, Bentek said.

Gulf Coast supplies are getting a boost. Shell Exploration & Production said Monday it has resumed partial production flows from at the Mars Tension Leg Platform, the Gulf of Mexico’s largest producing facility (see related story). The platform was shut in due to damage to its drilling rig and topsides production equipment from Hurricane Katrina last summer. Shell hopes to completely restore pre-Katrina production by Mars of 150-170 MMcf/d of natural gas and 150,000 bbl/d of oil by the end of June.

Weather-based demand is still fairly light in the Northeast, which was expected to remain cooler than normal through at least Tuesday. At this time of year, that means no cooling load, but little in the way of heating load either. Highs are expected to only reach the 70s at the eastern end of the South, but will be hitting the 80s and 90s in the rest of the region and possibly top 100 in West Texas.

Conditions will remain cool around the Great Lakes, but reach as high as the 90s to the west and south of there. Close to normal temperatures will prevail in the West — that is, chilly in the mountainous sections but ranging up to 100 degrees or more in the desert Southwest.

Stephen Smith Energy Associates estimated a storage injection of 88 Bcf for the week ending May 19.

©Copyright 2006Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news reportmay not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in anyform, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.