While some natural gas-fired power generation projects still in the planning stage are being deferred, those under construction are going ahead, and the battle is moving into the marketing of new online power supplies, according to Arlington, VA-based Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA).

“The competition for dispatch in several markets looks to be quite brutal,” said A. Michael Schaal, senior analyst with EVA, in releasing Thursday the company’s latest assessment, “Tracking the Boom of New Power Plants in the U.S.”

“The flurry of company announcements regarding project deferrals and cancellations largely affects only those projects that are not yet under construction, according to our project-by-project review,” Schaal said. At the end of 2001, capacity under construction or active development totaled 281,000 MW. Of that amount 120,000 MW is actually under construction. With nearly 74,000 of new gas-fired capacity already in operation since 1998, EVA calculates the total new gas-fired capacity currently slated to go online in the 1998 to 2007 time frame at 368,000 MW.

How much of that will actually be built? “Now that the boom of the current wave of new power plants has crested, EVA has reviewed and evaluated all pre-construction phase projects that are under development and can now offer our subscribers our expert opinion of what will be built and where,” said Stephen L. Thumb, director of EVA’s natural gas practice. “Our forecast is that 297,000 MW will be built, down some 23% from the November, 2001 peak.”

EVA also notes that over a third of the 35,000 MW of prospective new coal-fired power plant capacity planned for the U.S. by 2013 “has apparently stalled or been quietly shelved” because of low natural gas prices. Of the remaining 22,800 MW, nearly three-quarters is in the early development stage.

Putting all the new power to good use will be the next focal point. “It will take a couple of years for the ‘snake to fully digest the elephant’,” Schaal said. “The industry is now entering in a new phase of the boom where the emphasis will be on getting the most out of current assets just starting up, as the battle moves from emphasizing market share of installed capacity to market share of generation and capacity factor.”

EVA’s reports can be obtained at www.evainc.com or www.economy.com/research. The research and analysis company recently was selected by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) to track new power plants.

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