There are a total of 63 proposed natural gas liquefaction projects worldwide and about 41, totaling more than 30 Bcf/d of LNG supply, are likely to be built, according to a new assessment by Arlington, VA-based consulting firm Energy Ventures Analysis.

The group of 41 projects “most likely” to be built includes 19 expansions and 22 greenfield export terminals with 15 serving the Pacific Basin and 26 capable of serving the Atlantic Basin.

“One indication of the rapid…development of additional liquefaction capacity is the five facilities that have been completed since late 2002,” said EVA in its August edition of its Long Term Outlook. “In addition, there are currently 13 under construction and seven other project in essence already have permits.”

Since December 2002 the following five new liquefaction projects have come on stream: Train 3 of Nigeria’s Bonny Island facility (387 MMcf/d; Train 3 of Trinidad’s Atlantic LNG facility (440 MMcf/d); Trains 7 and 8 at Malaysia’s Tiga facility (961 MMcf/d) and Train 3 at Qatar’s Ras Laffin facility (627 MMcf/d).

Qatar currently plans to increase its liquefaction of gas from its 900 Tcf North Field by a factor of four by 2010 to 9.8 Bcf/d, which will push it past Indonesia as the largest LNG exporter in the world.

Australia has six liquefaction projects planned and the Australian government is confident that four of them will be online by 2010. Estimated potential gas reserves for Trinidad & Tobago are more than 100 Tcf and the Caribbean island already is building train four and planning to trains five and six, which would yield a total liquefaction capacity of 3.4 Bcf/d. Atlantic LNG has a capability to support 10 LNG trains.

The big question is whether all this new LNG export capacity will be adequate to quench the U.S.’s ever growing thirst for gas. EVA believes the U.S. will consume about 45% of the projected LNG supply increases worldwide.

Adding new import terminals will be key and there are plenty planned. Seven greenfield terminals have been approved, and another 23 have been filed with regulators in the United States, Canada and Mexico (see NGI’s list of existing and proposed terminals in the Features area of our website). EVA expects that 15 new terminals will be built by 2010.

LNG shipping also remains a significant factor in meeting U.S. demand. Historically, there have been shipping constraints, but according to EVA’s analysis, shipping capacity is expected to increase 46% between 2002 and 2005, and the pace of shipping growth is expected to remain steady through 2010.

“Furthermore, one-third of the current [vessel] orders through 2007 are not committed to a specific LNG project, which is a significant departure from historical industry practices and a significant factor in further developing the spot market for LNG,” EVA noted. In 2003, LNG spot shipments (those not under long-term supply agreements) represented about 11% of total LNG volumes, according to EVA. The United States accounted for 48% of the spot shipments and Asia accounted for 32%.

“Probably the most significant of the recent orders for LNG vessels is ExxonMobil’s tender for 28 new LNG vessels,” EVA said.

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