Despite continued supply volatility over the next several years, European natural gas prices could fall next summer by 20% from current prices as high storage and soft demand play out in the market, according to Wood Mackenzie.

In the consultancy’s short-term outlook report,  researchers said the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) price could fall by as much as $4/MMBtu, placing it under $10 by mid-2024. Last winter’s mild weather and an influx of LNG cargoes have meant European Union (EU) storage has filled more quickly than average.

With high storage combined with falling gas demand from Europe’s power and industrial sectors, the continent has been able to weather recent supply disruptions without the large price swings seen last year, said Wood Mackenzie’s Mauro...