Average peak load in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) control area is generally averaging 6% higher in 2004 than in 2003, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) said in the latest edition of the WECC [Western Electricity Coordinating Council] Energy Watch.

“A year-on-year comparison of average peak loads in the months of March and April shows average peak loads 5 and 9% higher, respectively,” said Stephen Conant, power analyst at ESAI.

ESAI believes higher temperatures are partly responsible for the increase. “March 2004 average high temperatures in key load areas were 5-6 degrees higher than in 2003, and 4 to 12 degrees higher in April 2004 compared to April 2003,” said Conant.

High temperatures play less of a role, however, in May and June when the average peak demand still increased by 6%, ESAI noted. According to ESAI, the increased demand when the effect of temperature is eliminated is due to a combination of economic growth and reduced demand management response.

If the 6% year-on-year increase continues over the upcoming months, ESAI expects average peak loads in CAISO control area in the month of July and August of 41,500 MW, 38,700 MW in September and 33,000 MW in October.

After unusually hot days in March and April, California experienced another sustained heat wave in early May, a CAISO spokesperson said, noting that on the first Sunday in May peak demand hit more than 34,000 MW, and the following day reached 40,400 MW, a level the grid operator doesn’t usually experience until July. Loads have stayed well below that level since mid-May, and on Wednesday, the CAISO peak demand forecast was at the 36,000 MW level.

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