According to a recent estimate by the Electric Power Supply Association (EPSA), the nation’s competitive generating capacity is likely to reach 319.5 GW by the end of 2001, more than a four-fold increase from 1997.

“The U.S. power supply industry is continuing to change, and change dramatically,” said Lynne H. Church, president of EPSA. “By the end of the year, more than a third of the nation’s generating capacity will be competitive. Just a little over a year ago, it seemed 25% was an optimistic target for 2001, but industry restructuring is happening very fast.”

In 1997, EPSA said competitive power suppliers accounted for only about 8.5% of the nation’s installed generating capacity, but as of the end of 2001 their share is likely to be about 36%. In addition to capacity additions totaling 68 GW during the period, 90% of it competitive, there also have been significant asset divestitures and reclassifications by regulated investor-owned utilities. In the organization’s study of the power industry, it found that of the additions, 61 GW are gas-fired.

As for wholesale power marketing and trading, total sales increased to 4.5 billion MWh in 2000, from 2.6 billion MWh during 1999. For the first six months of 2001, wholesale transactions were 2.9 billion MWh, a 47% increase from the corresponding period in 2000.

“Since the third quarter is traditionally the highest sales quarter, that means total wholesale transactions for the year could easily exceed 6 billion mwh, and perhaps approach 7 billion MWh,” Church said. “Such trading growth provides additional market liquidity, price transparency, risk-management and other customized products and services, which all serve to place downward pressure on end-user prices.”

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