As the Energy Information Administration (EIA) counts down to the release of its inaugural weekly storage report during the first week of May, details reveal that the survey and the data produced will borrow some aspects from the American Gas Association’s current report, but on the whole the administration’s report will be very different, according to Roy Kass, EIA’s senior analyst.

“If history is any indicator of what is going to happen, the break-in series, if you will, is going to be such that the EIA numbers are going to be greater than the historical AGA numbers,” Kass said. Specifically, he has observed that the EIA’s April 1 levels have exceeded AGA numbers by as much as 180 Bcf (1996), and by as little as 80 Bcf (1999). Last year the EIA-over-AGA surplus was just shy of 100 Bcf.

“Although we both start the heating season at about the same rate, the AGA numbers show a sharper and steeper decline than our monthly numbers and a sharper and steeper increase than do our monthly numbers, so we end the fill season about the same,” Kass said. “I have been trying to figure out the reason for that for years. It might have something to do with their responses. It might have something to do with their estimation methodology. I do not know.”

Speaking at GasMart/Power 2002 in Reno, Kass said that while EIA’s survey would adopt the AGA’s Consuming Region East, Consuming Region West and Producing Region classifications of states, it will include more reporting storage operators and a rotation of respondents on an annual basis. Kass said the EIA has selected 50 companies to report their storage situation on a weekly basis as opposed to the AGA’s count of between 40-45. EIA’s reporting companies will be confidential, just as AGA’s sources are.

“Some of the companies in my sample have been reporting to the AGA, some have not,” Kass said. He added that he has had to tell companies that were in AGA’s survey that they were not selected for his survey simply because their “number wasn’t picked.”

A major change from AGA’s voluntary survey is that selected EIA respondents must complete and submit their surveys or face a penalty. The analyst said that 48 of the 50 companies met the first survey deadline of March 18. EIA plans to release six-to-seven weeks of back data along with its first report in May.

“I am extremely gratified at the response we got from the respondents,” Kass said. “The questionnaire asked for gas in storage as of 9 a.m. EST on Friday [March 15]; at 10:30 a.m. Friday, we got our first response.”

Kass said that EIA will “allow and encourage” revisions to submitted data of greater than 1 Bcf, especially if there are errors in earlier reports that are found or there is a reclassification between base and working gas.

Another stark contrast to the AGA’s report is that EIA’s report will be free for all to see on the administration’s web site, as opposed to AGA’s current fee-based service. Kass said that “press and wire services are our friends.” However, he did say that EIA would not put up with companies that use robots to hit its web site at an excessive pace. He explained that the AGA had experienced some 75,000 hits in a 15-minute period due to robot use. Kass said the use of robots will be considered a “denial of service attack,” and the offender’s computer would be blocked from visiting EIA’s web site.

The EIA analyst added that the whole survey and reporting process will have heightened security. Computers involved in surveying and compiling will not be on the local area network. In addition, dedicated fax lines will be utilized, e-mails will be deleted quickly and rooms used for the storage report will be locked at all times.

Kass said that the time of day and the day of the week that the report will be released is still in question. He said that he does not like the current release of 2 p.m. EST on Wednesday because it does not provide enough time to compile the data. He also said that Friday is “out of the question.”

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