The Energy Information Administration released its Annual EnergyOutlook 1999 (AEO99) yesterday, projecting gas demand will grow byabout 50% to 33.17 Tcf by 2020 from 1997 levels of 22.59 Tcf, whichis a 1.7% average annual increase. Total energy demand is projectedto grow 1.1%/year to 119.9 quadrillion Btu by 2020 from 94 quads in1997.
EIA forecasts gas prices will rise 0.8% annually on average to$2.68/Mcf by 2020. Domestic dry gas production is projected toincrease 1.8%/year to 28.1 Tcf by 2020 from 19.47 Tcf in 1997, andimports are expected to rise 2.6%/year to 5.46 Tcf from 3.06 Tcflast year.
Gas demand is projected to rise in all sectors with electricgenerators leading the charge. The generation sector, excludingindustrial cogenerators, will account for 9.2 Tcf of total gasdemand in 2020, a nearly three-fold increase from 3.3 Tcf lastyear. It will be a challenge for the industry to meet such hugeincreases in demand, but EIA believes it can be accomplished.”.Increases well above those projected in AEO99 have been realizedin the past, and the industry’s past performance gives reason forconfidence that the projected increases can be accommodated,” EIAsaid.
The Administration projects onshore and offshore gas productionwill rise 57% and 14%, respectively, while pipeline capacity willincrease by 32% over 1997 levels. The industry accomplished a 21%increase in pipeline capacity in seven years, EIA noted, between1990 and 1997 without demand as the driving force. Shifting supplyand demand centers were the primary reasons for the growth duringthat period.
In addition to analyzing the impacts of world oil markets,economic growth, technology, and electricity regulations, AOE99discusses recent and proposed regulatory changes and other currentenergy issues. The report can be accessed on EIA’s Internet site athttps://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo99/homepage.html.
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