Forecasts of freezing or near-freezing low temperatures across much of the eastern half of the U.S. trumped two previous trading days of major gas futures losses as prices made strong gains at nearly all points Tuesday. Only continued backtracking in the Rockies averted an across the board run of firmness.

A Northeast citygate (Iroquois Zone 2) saw a triple-digit advance among overall upticks ranging from about 20 cents to the $1.05 area. A majority of gains were around 40 cents or more.

Although only two Rockies points recorded losses of more than about 30 cents and Northwest-domestic managed to rise about 95 cents, there was some gas in a distressed enough situation at the Opal processing plant and into Kern River that the suppliers were willing to let it go for as little as a penny. NGI tallied a half-dozen quotes of Kern River/Opal trading at a dime or less Tuesday.

Rockies heating load is marginal, with overnight lows due to be mostly just above freezing but highs of 60-70 degrees or so expected Wednesday. Northwest-South of Green River took the day’s biggest price hit likely because of the pipeline’s warning of potentially looming OFOs for overnominations northbound through the Kemmerer (WY) Compressor Station (see Daily GPI, Nov. 6).

It used to be that issuance of a high-linepack OFO by either of California’s two biggest LDCs nearly automatically guaranteed lower gas prices for the Golden State. But like several other instances previously this year, it didn’t work out that way Tuesday. PG&E declared its sixth high-inventory OFO in a week for Wednesday (see Transportation Notes), yet the PG&E citygate was up about a quarter while Malin rose nearly 40 cents.

A western trader said he had noticed the phenomenon of higher California prices occasionally being coupled with a high-linepack OFO but couldn’t see any reason for it. He suspected that soaring crude oil prices must be providing some indirect support for the cash gas market even when gas futures keep falling. He noted that cash prices held up Tuesday even after the screen turned negative.

The Weather Channel (TWC) predicted light snow showers and flurries in the Northeast Wednesday from western Maine through interior New York state, northern and western Pennsylvania and the mountains of West Virginia. A frosty or freezing morning in much of the South will yield to afternoon warming, TWC said, but temperatures will stay below seasonal norms from Arkansas and Louisiana eastward.

It was interesting to note the similarity of forecasts for New England and the eastern South. Boston’s expected high of 52 and low of 36 Wednesday is fairly close to Atlanta’s 58 and 37.

The Midwest can expect another day or two with lows around freezing. However, Northern Natural Gas provided an indicator of why Midcontinent/Midwest prices are rising currently but the firmness may not last much longer. Noting that its normal system-weighted temperature at this time of year is 39 degrees, the pipeline projected the system average of 30 Tuesday rising to 37 both Wednesday and Thursday and then a bit further to 40 Friday.

A Midcontinent producer said a cold wave is definitely responsible for this week’s stronger pricing, but he also doesn’t expect it to continue much longer. His area would get its first freeze of the heating season Tuesday night, but it will warm back up into the mid 70s this weekend, he said. So far he is not aware of much storage being withdrawn in the Midcontinent.

Local weather was very mild last week, the producer went on, and it even stayed warm through this past weekend, so cooling degree days are probably higher than normal. “However, I did light my furnace last week and it has run a few mornings,” he added.

Most of the West will range from seasonably mild to warm Wednesday, according to TWC. The only substantive cold will be in the northern Cascades and northern Rockies, it said.

Despite another record-setting day for crude oil futures and related products, it appears that the on-again, off-again relationship between natural gas and crude was off again. Crude hit an intraday all-time high of $97.10/bbl before finishing up $2.72 to $96.70. But December natural gas futures turned in a third consecutive losing performance with a fall of 13.6 cents.

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